

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights two significant divergences in the first quarter economic data: 1) the divergence between GDP growth and electricity consumption growth; 2) the increase in raw coal production while power plant inventories are decreasing. The GDP growth of 5.4% contrasts with a mere 2.5% increase in electricity consumption, primarily due to economic structural transformation and unexpected weather impacts on residential electricity use. Additionally, despite high raw coal production, power plant inventories have declined due to weak power generation demand and structural inventory accumulation at ports and pits [2][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 2.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.98 percentage points, ranking 3rd out of 32 industries. The thermal coal market price as of April 18 is 663 RMB/ton, showing a slight decrease of 2 RMB/ton week-on-week [6][20]. Thermal Coal Market - The report notes that while seasonal demand for coal is weak, the market is expected to stabilize as the negative factors affecting coal stocks are likely to diminish. The report suggests a positive outlook for coal stocks due to high dividend yields and narrowing second-order effects of falling coal prices [6][20]. Coking Coal Market - The coking coal price at Jing Tang Port remains stable at 1380 RMB/ton. The report emphasizes the need to monitor potential domestic demand stimulus policies and the sustainability of steel production increases [6][21]. Economic Divergences - The report elaborates on the divergence between GDP growth and electricity consumption, attributing it to structural upgrades in the economy and unexpected weather impacts. The first quarter saw a raw coal production increase of 9.704 million tons (8.1% year-on-year), while power plant inventories decreased by approximately 21.03 million tons since the beginning of the year [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends marginal allocations to long-term stable profit leaders such as China Shenhua (A+H) and Shaanxi Coal, as well as growth-oriented companies like Xinji Energy and Electric Power Investment Energy. It also highlights flexible growth stocks such as Yanzhou Coal Mining (A+H) and Shanxi Coking Coal [8].