宏观经济宏观季报：二季度内需继续回暖，二季度“以内补外”是关键

Group 1: Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, China's nominal GDP was approximately 31.9 trillion yuan, with a real GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year, maintaining the high point from Q4 2024[1] - The contribution of final consumption, capital formation, and net exports to GDP growth in Q1 was 2.8, 0.5, and 2.1 percentage points respectively, with contribution rates of 51.9%, 9.3%, and 38.9%[1] - The average contribution of final consumption, capital formation, and net exports to GDP growth from 2020 to 2024 was 2.7, 1.5, and 0.8 percentage points, totaling approximately 5.0%[2] Group 2: Future Outlook - In Q2 2025, domestic real GDP is expected to fall below 5.0% due to a slowdown in domestic demand and a significant decline in external demand[4] - The "internal demand compensating for external demand" strategy will be crucial for economic growth in Q2 2025[2] - The service sector's recovery is anticipated to enhance the effectiveness of the "internal demand compensating for external demand" strategy in Q2 2025[3] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Risks include a potential reduction in policy stimulus and uncertainties in overseas economic policies[5] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports may lead to a notable decline in external demand, affecting overall economic growth in Q2 2025[2]