KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-20 05:23Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The March retail sales growth has rebounded month-on-month, indicating strengthened consumer policy expectations. The food and beverage index increased by 0.2% from April 14 to April 18, ranking 15th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.3 percentage points. The sub-sectors of soft drinks (+4.4%), processed foods (+4.1%), and baked goods (+3.9%) performed relatively well [4][13][15] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in March 2025 increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 1.9 percentage points compared to January-February. The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year increase of 4.6% in retail sales, with food and beverage categories showing significant growth [4][14][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The March retail sales growth has rebounded, reflecting stronger consumer policy expectations. The food and beverage index increased by 0.2%, ranking 15th among sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.3 percentage points. The sub-sectors of soft drinks, processed foods, and baked goods showed leading performance [4][13][15] Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 0.2% from April 14 to April 18, ranking 15th among 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by approximately 0.3 percentage points. The leading sub-sectors included soft drinks (+4.4%), processed foods (+4.1%), and baked goods (+3.9%) [4][15] Upstream Data - The price of whole milk powder at GDT auction was $4,171 per ton, up 2.7% month-on-month and up 28.7% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.1 yuan per kilogram, unchanged month-on-month but down 11.5% year-on-year [19][23] Alcohol Industry Data - The production of large-scale white liquor from January to March was 1.032 million kiloliters, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%. The beer production in March was 312.8 million kiloliters, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [48][47] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, Ganyuan Foods, and Ximai Foods. Guizhou Moutai is expected to deepen its reform process, while Shanxi Fenjiu is anticipated to have high growth certainty in the medium term [6][14][56]