宏观点评：一季度出口韧性哪里来？-20250420

Export Performance - In Q1 2025, China's exports grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with a trade surplus of $272.97 billion[5] - The contribution of exports to the US and EU markets was positive, with contributions of 0.654 and 0.724 percentage points respectively[6] - ASEAN and "Belt and Road" sample countries contributed positively to export growth, achieving contributions of 0.433 and 0.104 percentage points respectively[6] Product Contribution - Major products contributing to export growth included machinery and electrical products, with contributions of 0.374 and 0.117 percentage points to the US and EU respectively[6] - Textile products also showed positive contributions, with 0.016 and 0.117 percentage points for exports to ASEAN and the EU respectively[2] - Automotive exports maintained an advantage in ASEAN and EU markets, contributing 0.041 and 0.104 percentage points to export growth[7] Trade Surplus Analysis - The US and EU markets provided strong support for China's trade surplus, with contributions of 4.10 and 2.59 percentage points respectively[12] - ASEAN achieved a positive contribution of 0.78 percentage points to the trade surplus, while "Belt and Road" sample countries had a negative contribution of -1.63 percentage points[12] - The overall trade surplus was influenced by factors such as the end of the Spring Festival and export-driven strategies by foreign trade enterprises[13] Risks and Outlook - There are increasing risks of economic recession in the US and EU, alongside a complex international situation that may impact future trade dynamics[3] - The manufacturing new export orders index remains below the threshold, indicating weak expectations among foreign trade enterprises[13]