冶炼酸价格有所回落，冶炼厂利润进一步压缩

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: short put @ 72,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - With the continuous decline of TC prices and the recent drop in sulfur prices, the profits of copper smelting enterprises may be further compressed. However, downstream demand is not pessimistic, and inventory depletion continues. It is recommended to focus on buying hedging for copper. If the price drops to around 73,000 yuan/ton, investors can seize the opportunity to enter the market at low prices [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Spot Situation: From April 18th, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper ranged from 75,920 yuan/ton to 75,310 yuan/ton, showing a pattern of first falling and then rising during the week. The SMM premium and discount quotes ranged from 0 to 130 yuan/ton, and the quotes continued to rise when the price increased in the second half of the week (partly due to contract rollover) [2]. - Inventory: From April 18th, LME inventory increased by 0.46 million tons to 21.34 million tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 1.13 million tons to 17.16 million tons, domestic social inventory (excluding bonded areas) decreased by 3.38 million tons to 23.34 million tons, bonded area inventory decreased by 0.31 million tons to 8.85 million tons, and Comex inventory increased by 0.53 tons to 12.31 tons [2]. Macro and Industry Analysis - Macro: After Trump continued to criticize Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and urged him to cut interest rates as soon as possible, Powell responded calmly. He said that the strong performance of the labor market depends on stable prices and that it is necessary to prevent inflation from overheating due to tariffs. He also clearly stated that there is no "Fed put option," and his speech was interpreted by the market as a weakening of the attitude towards interest rate cuts. In China, in March, exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year in US dollars and 13.5% in RMB, while imports decreased by 4.3% in US dollars and 3.5% in RMB. In the first quarter, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 10.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Among them, exports were 6.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, and imports were 4.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6% [3]. - Mine End: From April 18th, the copper concentrate market was sluggish, supply pressure was gradually emerging, and the spot TC price continued to be weak. The medium - and long - term supply situation did not improve and continued to hit new lows. The mainstream transaction price fluctuated in the low - to - mid - range of - 30. The market was weak, TC was under pressure, and the game between smelters and traders intensified. In the short term, the supply - demand imbalance was difficult to ease, and TC might fluctuate in the low - to - mid - range of - 30. The market focused on the BHP tender result, which had become the short - term price guide. This week, the TC price further dropped to 34.71 US dollars/ton [3]. - Smelting and Import: From April 18th, under the condition of continuously low TC, due to the decline in sulfur prices during the week, the price of smelting acid showed a downward trend, and the profit margin of smelters was further narrowed. Therefore, it is expected that the possibility of maintaining a high production volume in domestic smelting in April will decline. In terms of imports, the arrival of imported copper in the Shanghai market increased during the week, and some bonded warehouse receipt goods were cleared and imported into the domestic market, but the shipments from smelters were still relatively small, and there was little increase in domestic goods arrivals. Therefore, the supply of refined copper is expected to gradually tighten [4]. - Consumption: The orders of downstream processing enterprises were at a high level. With the copper price fluctuating and stabilizing, the willingness to purchase and replenish inventory still existed. The raw materials of recycled copper were in short supply, some enterprises purchased non - standard and non - registered goods, and brand enterprises were actively purchasing. Overall, the demand was acceptable. When the copper price was relatively stable, the premium and discount prices increased significantly (partly due to contract rollover), which also reflected that the current demand side was not pessimistic [4].