供需两弱情况下铅价或维持震荡格局

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended [5] 2. Core View - Due to the US tariff increase on China, the raw material supply has tightened, some primary lead plants have postponed resuming production, and the recycled lead raw material is relatively scarce. On the consumption side, battery enterprises are also significantly affected by tariffs. The current fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price is expected to remain volatile [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Lead Market Analysis - Mine Supply: On April 18th week, the US imposed additional tariffs on China, which may lead to cost pressure being passed on to upstream and a risk of falling lead concentrate prices. The Shanghai-London ratio declined from a high level, and there was no profit in lead concentrate imports. The domestic supply and demand did not change significantly, and the silver price rose, with the silver pricing coefficient of low-silver lead concentrate stabilizing [3]. - Primary Lead: On April 18th week, the operating rate of primary lead in three provinces increased by 1.24% to 63.25%. Some smelters in Henan that had been under maintenance and production cuts had not resumed production, a small-scale plant resumed production, a plant in Hunan reduced production due to equipment debugging and was expected to recover by the end of the month, and another plant increased production. A plant in Yunnan had been operating stably after resuming production in early April. Outside the samples, a plant in Jiangxi had not recovered after production cuts, and a plant in East China postponed its regular maintenance in April to early May [3]. - Recycled Lead: On April 18th week, the weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces reached 56.65%, a week-on-week decrease of 4.54 percentage points. In the off-season, recyclers had difficulty in collecting goods, resulting in insufficient raw material supply for smelters. The limited downstream demand for lead ingots led to low refined lead prices and pressure on smelters. Production cuts had been made this week, and the operating rate was expected to continue to decline next week due to continuous raw material shortages [3]. - Consumption: On April 18th week, the weekly operating rate of lead battery enterprises in five provinces was 72.5%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.74 percentage points. With the arrival of the off-season and the decline of lead prices, dealers were cautious in purchasing, and the enterprises' finished product inventory increased. Enterprises in Jiangxi, Guangdong, Zhejiang and other places reduced production or took 1 - 5 days off to relieve pressure. In addition, the US tariff increase to 245% led to a significant reduction in orders from export-oriented enterprises, with insufficient follow - up of new orders, and production in May - June might be affected [4]. - Inventory: On April 18th week, the lead ingot inventory in five places dropped to 6.29 million tons, a decrease of 0.66 million tons and 0.37 million tons compared with April 10th and 14th respectively. After the delivery of the SHFE lead 2504 contract, the goods entered the market, and downstream enterprises picked up the goods, expanding the inventory decline. The lead price was fluctuating weakly, and the high price of waste batteries squeezed profits. Recycled lead enterprises were reluctant to sell at low prices. In some areas, the price of refined lead exceeded that of primary lead, and downstream enterprises purchased primary lead, accelerating inventory consumption. Recycled lead enterprises reduced production due to losses and had low production enthusiasm. In the traditional off - season, downstream enterprises planned to reduce production or take holidays, and it was expected that both supply and demand would decline, with short - term inventory remaining stable and slightly decreasing [4]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended. The current lead market presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price is expected to remain volatile [5]