GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-04-20 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The national housing prices continue a slight downward trend, with core cities showing resilience. In March 2025, new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and fell by 5.0% year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a slight increase of 0.1%, while second-tier cities remained flat, and third-tier cities decreased by 0.2% [1][11] - The report emphasizes that the true stabilization of housing prices is contingent upon increased transaction volumes, especially as the market may face seasonal weaknesses post-April [2][11] - The report highlights that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investing in real estate equates to investing in economic trends [4] Summary by Sections 1. National Housing Price Trends - In March 2025, new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 5.0% year-on-year. First-tier cities increased by 0.1%, second-tier cities remained unchanged, and third-tier cities decreased by 0.2% [1][11] - Second-hand home prices in March 2025 decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 7.3% year-on-year, with first-tier cities increasing by 0.2% and second-tier cities decreasing by 0.2% [1][11] 2. Market Review - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 3.4%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.81 percentage points, ranking second among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2][14] - In the week, 30 cities recorded new home transaction areas of 149.8 million square meters, a decrease of 0.1% month-on-month and 8.2% year-on-year [2][14] 3. Key Company Credit Bond Situation - The report indicates that 11 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 9.351 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.596 billion yuan from the previous week [3][4] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to several reasons, including the expectation of stronger policy measures compared to previous years and the improved competitive landscape favoring leading state-owned enterprises and quality developers [4] - Recommended companies include: - H-shares: Greentown China, Jianfa International Group, China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, Yuexiu Property - A-shares: Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Development, Huafa Group, Jianfa Shares [4]