锌产业链周度报告-20250420

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a weak rating to the zinc industry [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - With the resumption of mines and the gradual implementation of new and expanded production capacities, the zinc concentrate processing fee is expected to rise steadily. However, the increase in smelting start - up rate will suppress the upward slope of TC. The top of TC in the second quarter may be around 4000 yuan/ton. Currently, smelter profits have significantly recovered, and the overall output still has the expectation of further increase [6]. - Domestic social inventory is positively correlated with zinc prices, and downstream raw material inventory is significantly negatively correlated with zinc prices. After the zinc price drops rapidly, downstream enterprises actively replenish inventory at low prices, but it is not driven by actual terminal orders. Domestic downstream orders show that domestic demand is relatively stable, and most overseas demand rush - export orders are less than the previous round. It is expected that the apparent consumption will peak and decline after April [6]. - The downstream demand for further replenishment is limited. The fundamentals are difficult to drive a sharp rebound in zinc prices. In the short term, after shock adjustment, a weak trend should be considered. The Back structure in the far - end may converge, and the long - short ratio of domestic and foreign zinc prices is appropriate, but structural losses need to be noted. Pay attention to the phased trading opportunities brought by tariff negotiations and implementation [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore inventory has returned to a high level, while zinc ingot explicit inventory is low. Zinc ore to - port volume is at a high level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant [9][40] - Profit: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits have significantly recovered. Mine enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits have recovered, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a relatively low level in the same period [11] - Start - up Rate: The smelting start - up rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream start - up rate is at a relatively low level in history. Zinc concentrate start - up rate has declined slightly, refined zinc monthly start - up rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc start - up rates have marginally recovered [13] 3.2 Trading Aspect - Spot: Spot premiums have fallen from high levels, and overseas premiums are relatively stable. The LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure, and the near - end of SHFE zinc shows a B structure, while the far - end is relatively flat [17][19][21] - Inventory: Inventories are showing a downward trend, and the position - to - inventory ratio is relatively high. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term increase and at a medium level in the same period in history. The off - warrant inventory is related to CASH - 3M. Bonded area inventory is stable, and the total global zinc explicit inventory has declined. The domestic market's position is at a relatively high level in the same period in history [26][31][34] 3.3 Supply - Zinc Concentrate: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium level, and the processing fees of domestic and imported ores have increased. The ore to - port volume is high, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant [38][40] - Refined Zinc: Smelting profits have marginally recovered, and smelting output has marginally increased. Refined zinc imports are at a medium - high level in history [41][44] 3.4 Zinc Demand - Consumption: Refined zinc consumption is basically the same as the same period last year [49] - Downstream: Downstream start - up rates have marginally recovered and are at a medium - low level in the same period in history. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [50][52] - Terminal: The power grid shows structural incremental demand [60] 3.5 Overseas Factors - European power prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, which affect the profitability of zinc smelters in different countries [62]