能源化工尿素周度报告-20250420

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is expected to experience short - term fluctuations. After a brief improvement in spot trading on Friday, the trading weakened over the weekend. In the short term, the spot and futures prices are expected to decline, while in the medium term, before entering the off - season of agricultural demand, urea is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3][4]. - The supply side of urea faces large pressure. The expansion of urea production capacity continues in 2025, and the daily output remains at a high level. Although some enterprises have maintenance plans, the overall supply is still abundant [25][30]. - The demand side has support from agricultural demand. Seasonal agricultural demand is strengthening, and the construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn. Industrial demand shows different trends, with the high - level operation of compound fertilizer production capacity utilization, a decline in melamine production compared with last year, and limited support from real - estate demand for panels [48][51][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Valuation: Price and Spread - International Spot Prices: The prices of small - particle urea in different regions have different trends. The low - end of China's bulk small - particle FOB price increased by $2/ton, and the high - end decreased by $4/ton. The prices in other regions such as the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and Brazil increased to varying degrees, while the CIF price in India remained the same as last week [2]. - Domestic Spot Prices: After six consecutive days of weak trading, the domestic spot market improved significantly on Friday, but the trading weakened over the weekend. It is expected to experience a short - term decline and show an oscillating pattern in late April [3]. - Futures: Affected by the "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the United States, the equity market fluctuates widely. The futures price rebounded on Friday due to improved spot trading and short - term replenishment by traders, but is expected to decline in the short term and oscillate in the medium term [4]. - Basis and Spread: The report provides historical data charts of urea basis (including ZhengYuan, JinKai, etc.), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, but no specific analysis is given [8][12]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - Production Capacity: The expansion of urea production capacity continues in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 4270,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 3,460,000 tons. Some enterprises' new production capacity is expected to be put into operation before the 05 contract [25]. - Maintenance Plan: Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including Shandong Union Chemical, Shaanxi Weihe Coal Chemical, etc. Some maintenance has been postponed [29]. - Output: The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The report provides historical data charts of daily output, capacity utilization, and the output of coal - based and gas - based urea [30][31]. - Cost: The raw material prices are relatively stable, and the cash - flow cost line of factories is around 1,364 yuan/ton. The report also provides the full - cost calculation of urea in different production processes [33]. - Profit: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report provides historical data charts of the cash - flow profit of fixed - bed devices and the production profit of different production processes [34][35]. - Net Import (Export): The "Legal Inspection" policy remains strict, and urea exports remain extremely low. However, the current internal - external price difference is still large, and the theoretical export profit is high [40][42]. 3.3 Demand - Agricultural Demand: Seasonal agricultural demand is strengthening, and different regions and crops have different demand patterns at different times. The construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn [48][51]. - Industrial Demand: The capacity utilization of compound fertilizer remains at a high level, the production of melamine has decreased compared with last year, and the real - estate demand for panels has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [57][59][60]. 3.4 Inventory - Factory Inventory: As of April 16, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 906,200 tons, an increase of 72,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.70%. Due to weakened downstream industrial demand and a short - term gap in agricultural demand, the inventory is expected to continue to increase next week [3][66]. - Port Inventory: As of April 17, 2025 (week 16), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 112,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.88%. The overall port inventory decreased slightly [66]. 3.5 International Urea - International Urea Prices: The report provides historical data charts of FOB prices of large - particle urea in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and CFR prices in Brazil [71][72][73][74]. - India's Urea Market: The report provides information on India's urea production, import, inventory, demand, and balance sheets from fiscal year 2018 to 2023, as well as details of India's tendering [76][83].