国泰君安期货金银周报-20250420

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Weekly Report [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Liu Yuxuan [2] - Date: April 20, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Gold shows increased volatility, with an uncertain upward trend and elevated risks; silver is expected to fluctuate and decline. The price ranges are 760 - 800 yuan/gram for gold and 7900 - 8300 yuan/kilogram for silver. Gold is relatively strong, while silver is neutral [3]. - The report maintains a bullish view on gold prices, considering it the optimal destination for funds in the market until the China - US tariff game ends. However, there are signs of increased volatility due to profit - taking by gold bulls, and the market is starting to focus on the tail - risk of a sharp decline after a significant rise in gold prices. Although the overall trading volume is decreasing, the market still shows a bullish sentiment [3]. - The report outlines several scenarios for a potential gold price correction, including US government intervention in the bond market, a change in Trump's tariff policy, and a rebound in the US dollar due to better - than - expected economic performance. Despite the long - term upward trend of gold, there is short - term uncertainty, and the report suggests using options for trading and allocation [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Data - Price and Performance: London gold rose 5.17% and London silver rose 4.48% this week. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 103.5 to 103. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 2.11%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.34% (2 - year at 3.96%), and the US dollar index was 99.2 [3]. - Futures Trading and Positions: Trading volume decreased for most gold and silver futures contracts, while some positions increased. For example, the trading volume of沪银2506 decreased by 153,462 hands, and its position increased by 11,920 hands [4]. - Inventory Changes: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.58 million ounces to 43.21 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 49.8%. COMEX silver inventory increased by 2.87 million ounces to 499.1 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.1%. Domestic gold futures inventory remained unchanged, and silver futures inventory decreased by 54.9 tons to 937 tons [34][36][38] - Spread Changes: Gold and silver's overseas and domestic spot - futures spreads, monthly spreads, and cross - market spreads all showed certain changes, mostly at the lower end of the historical range [8][15][21] - ETF and CFTC Positions: Gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 2.58 tons, and silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 147.13 tons. COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold declined significantly, while those in silver declined slightly [40][43][45] - Lease Rates: The 1 - month gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 4.8% [50] 2. Gold's Core Drivers - Relationship with Real Interest Rates: The correlation between gold and real interest rates has recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [55] - Inflation and Retail Sales: US retail sales in March exceeded expectations, but may have been affected by pre - tariff stockpiling [3] - Employment Data: Information on non - farm employment, including new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, and unemployment rates, is presented, but specific analysis is not provided [62] - Industrial Manufacturing and Financial Conditions: Not elaborated in detail in the report - Economic and Inflation Surprise Indexes: Not elaborated in detail in the report - Fed Rate - Cut Probability: Fed rate - cut probabilities for different time points and regions are presented, but in - depth analysis is not provided [72]