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Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Bullish with a bias towards upward movement; Alumina: Neutral [11] - Aluminum: Inter - period positive spread arbitrage [11] 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminum market is in a state of strong current reality but weak future expectations. Current consumption remains strong, social inventory is rapidly decreasing, and spot premiums are rising. Although there are concerns about future consumption due to tariff issues, the strong consumption may continue if overseas tariff policies loosen [4]. - Alumina prices are expected to show a weak trend. Although the spot price has slightly increased recently due to factors such as supply reduction from maintenance, the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change, and cost support is ineffective without large - scale production cuts [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Aluminum - Price: As of the week of April 17, 2025, the LME aluminum price increased by 2.14% to $2365.5 per ton, and the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 1.66% to 19,645 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [5]. - Supply: As of the week of April 18, the weekly operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained stable and is expected to increase slightly in the future. The built - in capacity is 45.17 million tons, the operating capacity is 44.1 million tons, with a weekly increase of 20,000 tons, and the operating rate is 97.7% [5]. - Demand: According to SMM data, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream industries showed different trends. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises remained flat at 58.5%, the average operating rate of aluminum plate and strip decreased by 0.6% to 68%, the average operating rate of aluminum foil remained flat at 73%, and the average operating rate of aluminum cables and wires increased by 2% to 63.6% [5]. - Inventory: As of April 17, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 689,000 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from the previous week, and the aluminum rod inventory was 209,200 tons, a decrease of 25,900 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 434,200 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons from the previous week [5]. - Profit: As of April 18, 2025, the weighted production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was about 16,550 yuan per ton, and the immediate production profit was about 3,300 yuan per ton, with a marginal maximum production cost of 18,300 yuan per ton [6]. Alumina - Price: As of the week of April 18, 2025, the main contract price of alumina increased by 1% to 2,818 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [9]. - Supply: As of the week of April 18, according to Aladdin data, the national built - in capacity of alumina was 109.22 million tons, the operating capacity was 87.15 million tons, with a weekly increase of 100 tons, and the operating rate was 79.8%. Supply is expected to increase slightly in the future, and the surplus pattern remains unchanged [9]. - Cost: As of the week of April 18, the latest transaction price of bauxite dropped below $90 per ton, and the ocean freight increased by $1 to $20 per ton. The price of bauxite is still under pressure [9]. - Inventory: As of April 18, 2025, the national alumina inventory was 4.001 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants decreased by 6,000 tons, the inventory at stations and ports decreased by 4,000 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1,000 tons. The pressure of warehouse receipt inventory on the market price remains [10]. - Profit: As of April 18, 2025, for high - cost enterprises using imported ore at $88 per ton, the full production cost was about 3,150 yuan per ton, with a production loss of about 300 yuan per ton. Enterprises using domestic ore also faced losses, and the import loss of alumina widened to - 256 yuan per ton [10].