策略周报：政策注重稳预期稳经济-20250420

Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that policies are focused on stabilizing expectations and the economy, with domestic economic data showing a strong start in Q1 2025, including a 5.4% year-on-year GDP growth, which is higher than the 5.3% recorded in the same period last year [2][3][7] - The A-share market demonstrated resilience amid a decline in US stocks, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.2% last week, while 23 out of 31 sectors in the Shenwan first-level industry index saw gains, particularly in banking, real estate, coal, and oil sectors [2][10] - The report identifies two main investment themes: 1) domestic technology self-sufficiency, including advanced manufacturing and defense industries; 2) high-quality assets in the domestic consumption sector that benefit from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [2][8] Recent Economic Data - In March 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4% year-on-year, with retail sales accelerating to a growth rate of 5.9% in March, supported by effective policies promoting consumption [3][4] - The industrial added value growth rate in March reached 7.7%, with high-tech industries growing at 10.7%, indicating a robust production sector [3][6] - March exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in exports to the US and EU, highlighting a recovery in external demand [4][5] Policy Tracking - Recent government meetings have focused on stabilizing employment and the economy, with the State Council emphasizing the need for proactive policy measures to manage expectations and stimulate domestic demand [8][9] - The government has introduced various initiatives to support private enterprises and enhance service consumption, indicating a commitment to fostering a conducive business environment [8][9] Market Performance - The report notes that the A-share market is expected to maintain relative strength compared to overseas markets due to supportive domestic policies and resilient internal demand [2][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index's performance reflects a favorable valuation environment, with a PE ratio of 14.06, indicating potential for further growth in the context of economic recovery [10][12]