AYIS(SH:600569) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-04-20 09:58Report Overview - Report Title: Short - end Spreads Compressed, Long - end Spreads Widened — Credit Analysis Weekly (2025/4/14 - 2025/4/18) - Report Date: April 20, 2025 - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided in the report Core Views - The 10 - year Treasury yield at 1.65% prices in about a 30BP interest rate cut expectation, and the 10Y Treasury yield may return above 1.7% this year [2] - The credit spreads of various industries fluctuated this week. For urban investment bonds, the 3 - 5Y spreads are inverted with long - end spreads, and it is recommended that institutions with stable liability ends select high - quality urban investment entities in developed regions. For industrial bonds, short - end spreads compressed slightly, and long - end spreads widened slightly, and it is recommended to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds. For bank capital bonds, short - end spreads compressed to varying degrees, and long - end spreads widened slightly, and it is recommended to focus on the catch - up opportunities of secondary capital bonds at the convex points of the term structure [2][44] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Overview (4/14 - 4/18) 1.1 Primary Market - Credit bond issuance, repayment, and net financing: The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 17.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.34 billion yuan from last week. The total issuance was 45 billion yuan, an increase of 2.42 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 27.04 billion yuan, an increase of 6.76 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 2.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.08 billion yuan [6] - By product type: The net financing of urban investment bonds was 6.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.26 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 12.78 billion yuan, an increase of 3.97 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was - 1.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.04 billion yuan [6] - Issuance and repayment numbers: Urban investment bond issuance increased by 53 and repayment by 21; industrial bond issuance increased by 102 and repayment by 63; financial bond issuance decreased by 14 and repayment increased by 9 [7] - Issuance costs: Except for the issuance rates of AAA urban investment bonds and financial bonds rising, the issuance rates of other rated credit bonds decreased to varying degrees. For urban investment bonds, AA and AA + rates decreased by 15BP and 2BP respectively; for industrial bonds, AA, AA +, and AAA rates decreased by 15BP, 18BP, and 2BP respectively; AAA urban investment and financial bond rates increased by 1BP and 15BP respectively. For asset - backed securities, AAsf - rated ABS rate increased by 550BP, AA + sf - rated ABS rate decreased by 92BP, AAAsf - rated ABS rate decreased by 9BP, and AA + and AAA - rated ABN costs decreased [15][16] 1.2 Secondary Market - Trading volume: The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 2.24 billion yuan from last week. Urban investment bond volume increased by 5.65 billion yuan, industrial bond volume increased by 4.3 billion yuan, financial bond volume decreased by 12.2 billion yuan, and asset - backed securities volume increased by 0.9 billion yuan [18] - Turnover rate: The turnover rate of credit bonds fluctuated. Urban investment bond turnover rate was 1.69%, a decrease of 0.36pct; industrial bond turnover rate was 2.14%, an increase of 0.24pct; financial bond turnover rate was 2.71%, a decrease of 0.89pct; asset - backed securities turnover rate was 0.7%, an increase of 0.28pct [18] - Yields: Except for the yields of credit bonds below 1Y decreasing slightly, the yields of credit bonds of other terms and ratings decreased by 0 - 7BP. By variety, taking AA + - rated 5Y bonds as an example, the yields of different varieties fluctuated [22][23] - Credit spreads: The credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly. AA - rated pharmaceutical and biological credit bonds narrowed by 10BP; among AA + - rated bonds, the spreads of electronics, chemical, and machinery industries narrowed by 6BP, 5BP, and 5BP respectively, while that of the computer industry widened by 5BP; among AAA - rated bonds, the spread of the electrical equipment industry narrowed by 9BP, and that of the leisure service industry widened by 6BP [25] 2. Urban Investment Bonds - By term: Short - end spreads compressed slightly, and long - end spreads widened slightly. The 0.5 - 1Y spread was 44BP, a compression of 1BP; the 1 - 3Y spread was 51BP, a compression of less than 1BP; the 3 - 5Y spread was 75BP, a compression of 3BP; the 5 - 10Y spread was 66BP, a widening of 3BP; the spread over 10Y was 47BP, a widening of less than 1BP [29] - By region: The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in various regions generally narrowed, with some regions rising slightly. Tianjin, Shanxi, and Gansu's AA - rated spreads compressed by 5BP or more, and the spreads of other regions fluctuated by less than 5BP [31] 3. Industrial Bonds - Credit spreads: Short - end spreads compressed slightly, and long - end spreads widened slightly. After the adjustment of long - end spreads, the convex point of the term spread of AAA - rated industrial bonds has been smoothed out. It is recommended to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips [33] 4. Bank Capital Bonds - Credit spreads: Short - end spreads compressed to varying degrees, and long - end spreads widened slightly. For secondary capital bonds, the spreads of AAA - 3Y, AA + 1Y and 3Y, and AA 1Y narrowed by 5BP or more, and the spreads of AAA -, AA +, and AA 10Y widened by 2 - 3BP. For bank perpetual bonds, the spreads of AAA -, AA +, and AA 1Y narrowed by 5BP. It is recommended to focus on the catch - up opportunities of secondary capital bonds at the convex points of the term structure [37] 5. This Week's Bond Market Sentiment - Negative sentiment: The implied ratings of "24 Anyang Iron and Steel MTN001 (Sustainable - linked)", "24 Anyang Iron and Steel MTN002 (Science and Technology Innovation Note)", "25 Anyang Iron and Steel PPN001 (Science and Technology Innovation Note)", and "25 Anyang Iron and Steel PPN002B (Science and Technology Innovation Note)" issued by Anyang Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. were downgraded [2] 6. Investment Recommendations - Urban investment bonds: Institutions with stable liability ends can select high - quality urban investment entities in developed regions to lock in coupon income and moderately sink to capture arbitrage opportunities at the convex points of the term structure [2][44] - Industrial bonds: Focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips [2][44] - Bank capital bonds: Focus on the catch - up opportunities of secondary capital bonds at the convex points of the term structure [2][44]