美元失锚，资金转向市场分析

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The RMB is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger short - term trend, with the key factors for the future being the trend of the US dollar and changes in policy attitudes [2]. - The US dollar index continues to be weak, and the US dollar is under short - term pressure due to concerns about Powell's tenure stability and a decline in economic growth expectations [3]. - The euro is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger mid - to short - term trend, but it still faces downward risks if the interest rate differential logic dominates again and the US dollar rebounds [4]. - The Japanese yen is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the divergence in US - Japan policies and trade negotiation expectations [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis US Dollar vs RMB - The RMB is relatively stable. The USD/CNY has fallen to around 7.30. China's Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% and exports in Q1 increased by 6.9% year - on - year, with a 12% growth in March, providing fundamental support. The RMB is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger short - term trend [2]. US Dollar Index - The US dollar index is weak. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts within the year continues to rise, with derivatives pricing factoring in a cumulative reduction of 86.8 basis points. The US economy shows a weak recovery in the real economy, and the US dollar is under short - term pressure [3]. Other Currencies - Euro: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The euro is relatively strong in the short term due to the decline in confidence in the US dollar, but it may face downward risks if the US dollar rebounds [4]. - Japanese Yen: The Japanese yen is strong. The narrowing of the US - Japan interest rate differential is the core factor driving the appreciation of the yen. The market's expectation of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan within the year is postponed but the direction remains unchanged [5]. Strategy - US Dollar vs RMB: In the short term, the exchange rate deviates from fundamentals and the RMB is relatively strong. In the medium term, it has a basis for stable oscillation [6]. - Japanese Yen: The US - Japan interest rate differential continues to narrow, and the USD/JPY is in a weakening trend [6]. - Euro: The euro is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger mid - to short - term trend [6].