Ping An Securities·2025-04-20 11:25Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Outperform the market (expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [34] Core Insights - RISC-V architecture is driving diverse demand in the chip ecosystem under AI influence, with a projected CAGR of 75% from 2020 to 2024 and an expected annual growth rate of nearly 50% until 2030 [2][9] - International market changes are expected to increase the contract price growth of memory products in Q2 2025, with both DRAM and NAND Flash prices anticipated to rise more than previously expected due to heightened trading momentum [4][5] - The global smartphone market showed a modest growth of only 1% in Q1 2025, with Samsung leading at 20% market share, followed by Apple at 18% [12][13] - QD-OLED displays are projected to account for 73% of OLED display shipments in 2025, up from 68% in 2024, indicating strong competitiveness in high-end display technology [18][19] Summary by Sections RISC-V and AI - RISC-V is recognized for its innovative architecture, offering better performance and smaller chip sizes, making it suitable for AI accelerator designs [2][9] - The market for processors utilizing RISC-V technology is expected to grow significantly, with a 10-year CAGR of approximately 57% from 2020 to 2030 [2][9] Memory Market Outlook - The memory market is experiencing a shift in supply and demand strategies due to international circumstances, leading to increased contract price expectations for DRAM and NAND Flash in Q2 2025 [4][5] - Price forecasts indicate a potential increase in memory prices, with DRAM and NAND Flash expected to rise by 3-8% in Q2 2025 after a decline in Q1 2025 [6] Smartphone Market Analysis - The smartphone market's growth remains sluggish, with a mere 1% increase in Q1 2025, attributed to macroeconomic challenges and consumer confidence issues [12][13] - Major players like Samsung and Apple continue to dominate the market, with Xiaomi, vivo, and OPPO following [12][13] Display Technology Trends - The rise of QD-OLED technology is expected to enhance the quality and performance of displays, catering to high-end users and gamers [18][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on semiconductor manufacturing and equipment due to the clear trend of domestic substitution, with specific companies recommended for investment [29][33]