Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Real Estate Stronger than the Market (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Policy expectations are rising, enhancing the risk-reward ratio for the sector. The government is likely to introduce new support measures, especially with the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of April. The short-term investment risk-reward ratio for the sector is improving due to potential policy enhancements aimed at boosting housing demand and supporting the market [2][3] - The real estate market still has significant development potential, with a projected demand for residential properties of 876 million square meters from 2025 to 2030. The estimated sales area for 2024 is 810 million square meters, which is below the mid-term demand center. The promotion of "good houses" is expected to accelerate the release of improvement and replacement demand [2] - Short-term policy and fundamental factors are expected to resonate positively, while the long-term product iteration presents new opportunities. Recommended stocks include companies with strong product capabilities and optimized inventory structures, such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments [2] Summary by Sections Policy Environment Monitoring - The government emphasizes the significant development space in the real estate market, with new policies introduced in cities like Wuxi, Qingdao, and Suzhou to support housing demand [6] Market Operation Monitoring - Transaction volume remains stable, with new home sales in 50 key cities at 14,000 units, a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week. The average daily transaction volume for new homes in April shows a year-on-year decline of 22.2% [9][12] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a 3.4% increase in stock prices, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.59%. The current PE ratio for the real estate sector is 35.72, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 12.26, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels [23][29]
地产行业周报：政策预期持续升温，板块风险收益比提升-20250420
Ping An Securities·2025-04-20 11:41