样本城市周度高频数据全追踪：3月推盘未售口径库存和去化周期边际下降-20250420

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a marginal decline in unsold inventory and the de-stocking cycle as of March, suggesting a potential improvement in market conditions [1][30]. - New housing and second-hand housing transaction volumes have shown a year-on-year decline, with new housing down by 21% and second-hand housing down by 0.1% as of April 17 [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring short-term policy impacts, including the potential for further interest rate cuts to stabilize housing demand and improve supply-demand dynamics [4]. Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - New housing transaction volumes have seen a year-on-year decline, with a 21% drop compared to the previous year, indicating a worsening trend [3][7]. - The report notes that the year-on-year decline in new housing transactions is expanding, while the month-on-month figures are at a mid-level compared to the last five years [7][9]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - Second-hand housing transactions have turned negative year-on-year, with a 0.1% decline, reflecting a significant shift in market sentiment [12][14]. - The report indicates that the month-on-month figures for second-hand housing transactions are at a relatively low level compared to the last five years [14]. Land Supply and Transactions - In March 2025, land supply across 300 cities decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, while transaction volume increased by 2.7% [19]. - The average transaction price of land has shown a year-on-year increase of 19%, indicating a potential recovery in land market dynamics [19][25]. Inventory and De-stocking Cycle - The report indicates that the inventory of unsold land, unsold construction, and unsold new housing has decreased marginally compared to February, suggesting a potential improvement in market conditions [30][33]. - The de-stocking cycle for first, second, and third-tier cities has also shown a decline compared to the previous month [33]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The report discusses the importance of monitoring liquidity indicators and market confidence indices, which have shown marginal declines, indicating cautious sentiment among investors [4][49]. - The report suggests that high-quality residential supply and the narrowing gap between net rental yields and mortgage rates could be key variables to watch for future market improvements [4].