宏观扰动仍存，PDH装置负荷面临下行压力

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the LPG market is "Oscillating; short - term wait - and - see" [7] Group 2: Report's Core View - The oil market still faces uncertainties from multiple aspects such as macro and geopolitics, and caution is needed. The LPG market lacks a clear trend due to the interweaving of long and short factors [3][5] Group 3: Market Analysis Oil Market - Recently, oil prices have rebounded, with Brent rising to around $67 per barrel. Reasons include positive signs in Sino - US trade negotiations, the rebound of other industrial products like copper prices, a good real - world fundamentals of crude oil, and the profit - taking of short - selling positions. The outcome of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation may impact oil prices [3] Global LPG Market - With the rebound of macro sentiment and the crude oil end, the outer - market LPG price has recovered from a phased low. After China's 125% tariff counter - measure on the US, direct trade volume of LPG between the two countries is expected to gradually drop to zero. China will source from the Middle East, and the US will increase exports to Japan, South Korea, and Europe. The pattern of CP being stronger than FEI will continue [4] Domestic LPG Market - In the domestic market, after the tariff counter - measure, the spot price first rose due to increased import costs, then declined as supply increased. Supply from domestic refineries is rising after maintenance, and the LPG arrival volume in April is expected to reach 3.41 million tons. Demand from the combustion end is weak, and the operating rate of PDH and cracking units relying on imported raw materials has dropped to about 60%. By May, more maintenance and shutdowns are expected [5] Group 4: Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating; short - term wait - and - see - Cross - variety: None - Cross - period: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [7]