航运船舶市场系列十四：全球航运脱碳方案初定，经济性措施利好造船

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the shipping and shipbuilding industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that global shipping decarbonization plans are being established, which will benefit shipbuilding through economic measures [3] - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set various targets and regulatory measures to gradually promote shipping decarbonization, with emission reduction goals based on 2008 levels [6][7] - The report indicates that traditional heavy fuel oil (HFO) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) may not meet the IMO's mid-term decarbonization requirements by 2035 [10] - Ships using HFO may incur compliance costs of approximately $100 per ton between 2028 and 2030, while LNG-fueled ships may be exempt from such costs [10] - The analysis suggests that using fuels with lower greenhouse gas (GHG) content is more effective in reducing potential compliance costs than improving ship efficiency [14] - The IMO's zero-carbon fund has high reward requirements, and only bio-LNG, blue/green methanol, and green ammonia may meet these standards [16] - The report notes that over 80% of the global fleet's capacity currently relies on traditional heavy fuel oil [16] - For ships built before 2015, the inability to retrofit for green fuels will significantly reduce their future economic viability [19] - The report estimates that approximately 60% of existing capacity (ships built before 2015) will need to be replaced with new ships using green fuels by 2030 [20] - As the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) requirements increase, the proportion of the global fleet rated D-E may further rise [24]