供应端现边际减量，关注5月表需情况

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices fluctuated at a low level. In the short term, prices may oscillate narrowly around 70,000 yuan. It is recommended to pay attention to the rhythm of warehouse receipt changes and the downstream production schedule in May. Strategically, a bearish approach is still advised, and short - selling opportunities at the upper edge of the range can be considered [2][3][15] - Recently, there has been a marginal reduction in the supply side. Some salt factories will conduct maintenance from April to June, and the monthly average supply reduction in April and May is expected to be about 3,000 - 4,000 tons. The pressure of inventory accumulation may slow down, and there is no new downward driver for prices in the short term [2][3][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply - side shows marginal reduction, focus on the apparent demand in May - Price situation: Last week (04/14 - 04/18), lithium salt prices fluctuated at a low level. LC2505 closed at 70,300 yuan/ton, a 0.1% increase; LC2507 closed at 70,200 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decrease. SMM battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate spot average prices decreased by 0.2% and remained unchanged respectively. The prices of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The electric - industrial price difference narrowed slightly, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate widened slightly [2][12] - Supply situation: Some salt factories will conduct maintenance from April to June, with the SMM weekly lithium carbonate output decreasing by 574 tons to 17,400 tons. The mine - end quotation is still decreasing, and the Australian ore quotation may have difficulty finding effective support at $800 [2][14] - Warehouse receipt situation: Last week, the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 639 lots to 29,600 lots. The basis remained strong, and there was no profit from warehouse delivery, resulting in a significantly slower speed of warehouse receipt generation by holders. The LC2505 - LC2507 structure changed to back [3][14] 2. Weekly industry news review - Production adjustment plan: Zijin Mining will adjust its lithium project production plan according to the lithium price trend. The 3Q lithium salt lake in Argentina has basically met the production conditions but is still undergoing technical transformation. The Hunan Xiangyuan hard - rock lithium polymetallic ore is expected to be put into production by the end of 2025, and the corresponding smelting capacity may be matched in the first half of 2026 [16] - Mining license transfer: The mining license of the Bougouni lithium project has been transferred from Future Minerals to Kodal Mining's UK subsidiary. The project is close to completion, and the company expects to start exports in the next quarter [16] - Company performance: Zangge Mining's net profit in the first quarter of 2025 was 747 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 41.18%, while its operating income was 552 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.12% [17] - Exchange notice: From the trading time on May 6, 2025, the implementation method of the hedging transaction fee reduction of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be adjusted [17] 3. Key high - frequency data monitoring of the industrial chain 3.1 Resource end: The spot quotation of lithium concentrate continues to decline - The FMB's latest lithium concentrate quotation dropped to $805/ton on Friday, and the Australian ore quotation may have difficulty finding support at $800 [2][14] 3.2 Lithium salt: The main contract approaches the 70,000 - yuan mark again - The closing prices of LC2505 and LC2507 fluctuated, and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also changed. The prices of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [2][12] 3.3 Downstream intermediates: Quotes decline - The prices of products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed a downward trend [32][39][37] 3.4 Terminal: The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China increased significantly year - on - year in March - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China in March increased significantly year - on - year, and the penetration rate also showed a certain trend [40][44][46]