CMS·2025-04-20 13:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Strongly Recommended" for key companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3]. Core Viewpoints - The pig farming industry is experiencing significant overselling, with pig prices showing seasonal weakness but remaining stronger than market expectations. Factors such as frozen product inventory and secondary fattening still have room for improvement, indicating that the bottom for pig prices is likely to be supported [1][7]. - The production capacity of listed pig companies is still in a release phase, with a record monthly slaughter volume. Given the limited increase in pig supply expected in 2025, high-quality pig companies may still achieve considerable profits and continue to repair their balance sheets [1][7]. - The report highlights key recommendations for investment, focusing on companies with cost advantages and strong performance capabilities, specifically recommending Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, while suggesting to pay attention to Shennong Group and Dongrui [1][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Breeding Profitability and Production Capacity - Pig prices continue to be weak, while piglet prices remain strong. In March 2025, the national average price for live pigs was 14.6 CNY/kg, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% [11][14]. - Breeding profitability is narrowing, with the average profit for self-bred pigs at 42.4 CNY/head, down 39% month-on-month. The number of breeding sows decreased by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter [14][11]. - In March, sample companies oversold, with actual sales of 22.34 million pigs against a planned 20.92 million, indicating a significant overselling trend [22][11]. 2. Slaughter Volume and Piglet Sales - In March 2025, 15 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 17.69 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 40%, with a record monthly slaughter volume [39][11]. - The sales of piglets also increased significantly, with 7 listed companies selling 2.62 million piglets, a year-on-year increase of 196% [40][11]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the pig price bottom is likely to be supported due to overselling in March and the potential for increased frozen product inventory and secondary fattening. The report emphasizes the importance of cost advantages for high-quality pig companies in achieving substantial profits [57][1]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong performance capabilities, particularly Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, while also suggesting to monitor Shennong Group and Dongrui [57][1].