PAB(SZ:000001) Huafu Securities·2025-04-20 13:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 was impacted by fluctuations in the bond market, leading to a decline in both revenue and net profit growth rates. Revenue decreased by 13.1% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 5.6% [3][11] - Despite the challenges, key operational metrics showed significant improvement, including a narrowing decline in net interest margin and improved asset quality in retail loans. The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.83%, down 18 basis points year-on-year, but this was a significant improvement compared to the 51 basis points decline for the entire year of 2024 [4][11] - Retail loan non-performing loan (NPL) ratio improved to 1.32%, a decrease of 7 basis points from the end of 2024, indicating effective risk management and asset quality improvement [5][11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue growth rate was -13.1%, a decline of 2.1 percentage points compared to 2024, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year and a 32.7% year-on-year drop in non-interest income [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than revenue due to reduced provisioning, with a provision amount of 7.43 billion yuan, which was 1.97 billion yuan less than the previous year [3] Asset Quality - The retail loan NPL ratio improved to 1.32%, with personal housing loan NPLs decreasing for two consecutive quarters and credit card loan NPLs declining for four consecutive quarters. However, corporate loan NPLs increased to 0.79%, up 9 basis points from the end of 2024 [5] - The overall attention rate improved to 1.78%, down 15 basis points from the end of 2024, indicating a positive trend in asset quality management [5] Loan Growth - In Q1 2025, total loan issuance was 37.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 37 billion yuan year-on-year. Corporate loans amounted to 75.7 billion yuan, down 98.4 billion yuan year-on-year, while retail loans continued to shrink, with a balance decrease of 38.1 billion yuan [6] Financial Data and Valuation - As of April 18, 2025, the closing price was 11.18 yuan, with a total share capital of 19,405.92 million shares and a market capitalization of 216,954.29 million yuan. The book value per share was 22.48 yuan, and the asset-liability ratio stood at 91.24% [7][11] - The company is expected to stabilize and recover in 2025, with projected revenue growth rates of -5.5%, 3.7%, and 7.0% for 2025-2027, and net profit growth rates of 2.1%, 4.6%, and 7.8% respectively [11]