超长债周报：税走向不明，市场横盘震荡-20250420

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The GDP in Q1 increased by 5.4% year - on - year, significantly higher than the annual target of 5%. Although the economic data in March improved notably, the bond market's focus remained on the tariff situation. The market was in a sideways state, and ultra - long bonds slightly retraced [1][11][38]. - The recent intensification of global trade frictions has led to significant shocks in global capital markets, increasing the downward pressure on the global economy. Short - term risk - aversion sentiment is expected to remain strong, and the bond market is likely to oscillate with an upward bias [2][3][12][13]. - However, the term spread of 30 - year treasury bonds is extremely low, and the term spread protection is limited. The credit spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is also at a historically low level, with limited credit spread protection [2][3][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Recap - In terms of trading, the trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but it was still relatively active. In terms of spreads, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the credit spread remained flat [1][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bonds: As of April 18, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 25BP, at a historically low level. Considering domestic economic data, inflation, and global economic conditions, the bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - 20 - year CDB Bonds: As of April 18, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to 30 - year treasury bonds, considering various factors, the bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, but the credit spread protection is limited [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The outstanding balance of ultra - long bonds exceeded 20.7 trillion. By type, local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds was relatively large. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance volume of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly. By type, local government bonds had the largest issuance volume. By term, the 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance volume [19]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week totals 172.9 billion yuan, including 121 billion yuan of ultra - long treasury bonds and 49.9 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was relatively active, but the trading activity decreased slightly compared with the previous week. The trading volume and proportion of various types of ultra - long bonds decreased to different extents [28][29]. Yield - Due to the market's focus on tariffs, the market was in a sideways state, and ultra - long bonds slightly retraced. The yields of different - term ultra - long bonds of various types changed to different extents [38]. Spread Analysis - Term Spread: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, but the absolute level was low. - Credit Spread: The credit spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat last week, and the absolute level was low [45][51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2506, closed at 119.70 yuan, up 0.14%. The total trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, and the open interest increased slightly [53].