需求受关税战影响，成本驱动有所走强

Report Information - Report Title: "Hualian Futures PTA Weekly Report: Demand Affected by Tariff War, Cost Drivers Strengthening" [2] - Report Date: 20250420 [2] - Researcher: Huang Guiren [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil has rebounded in the short - term, and cost drivers have strengthened. Overall, supply is at a high level, there is differentiation among different product lines on the demand side, and inventory is shifting downstream. Attention should be paid to the development of external tariff issues [6]. Summary by Section 1. Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - Operation strategy: Aggressive investors should hold short positions lightly. For options, use a small number of call options for hedging. The resistance level of the 2509 contract is around 4450 [5]. 2. Supply - Last week, the average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate was 76.74%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 4.97 percentage points year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. Sichuan Energy Investment carried out scheduled maintenance, and there were few changes in other devices. This week, Fujian Baihong is expected to restart, and production may increase [6][20]. - Last week, PTA production was 133.85 tons, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous week and an increase of 8.68% year - on - year. From January to February 2025, China's cumulative PTA imports were 0.52 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30%. As domestic self - sufficiency rate gradually increases, imports are further reduced and can be basically ignored [24]. 3. Demand - In March 2025, the actual PTA consumption was 6.0177 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.62% and a year - on - year increase of 9.30%. Last week, the average polyester operating rate was 91.09%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 0.42 percentage points year - on - year, generally at a relatively high level in the same period [28]. - Last week, the weekly polyester industry output was 1.5588 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.41% and a year - on - year increase of 19.22%. As of April 17, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.94%, a decrease of 2.31 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 16.55 percentage points year - on - year. Terminal textiles are significantly affected by tariff issues, new orders are limited, and market transaction pressure has increased [30]. 4. Inventory - According to Longzhong Information, last week, the PTA industry inventory was about 4.4583 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91%. The PTA factory inventory was 4.36 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week and a decrease of 0.95 days year - on - year [52]. - Last week, the PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories was 9.4 days, a decrease of 0.85 days from the previous week and an increase of 1.47 days year - on - year [53]. 5. Futures Market - Last week, the 1 - 5 spread weakened and was higher than the same period last year. The 5 - 9 spread increased slightly from the previous week and was stronger than the same period last year. The overall futures monthly spread showed a slight premium pattern with near - term prices lower and far - term prices higher [13]. - The 9 - 1 spread weakened from the previous week and was lower than the same period last year. The basis increased from the previous week and was stronger than the same period last year [16]. 6. Valuation - PX prices declined. PTA spot processing fees weakened from the previous week and were higher than the same period last year. The futures disk processing fees remained stable from the previous week and were the same as the same period last year [70][74][80].