宏观经济宏观周报：高频指标延续走弱，房地产景气保持稳定-20250420

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B continues to decline, indicating weak economic momentum[1] - Index B standardized shows a decrease of 0.43, significantly weaker than the historical average increase of 0.17 per week after the Spring Festival[1] - Investment and consumption sectors show a decline in prosperity, while the real estate sector remains stable[1] Price Trends - Food and non-food prices both decreased this week, with April CPI food prices expected to rise by approximately 0.5% month-on-month, and non-food prices by about 0.1%[2] - Overall CPI is projected to increase by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year CPI expected to rise to zero[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to decline by about 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -2.8%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of April 25, 2025, is 2.60%, compared to the current average of 1.65%[19] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to decrease to 3,141.29 from the current average of 3,272.71[19]