Guohai Securities·2025-04-20 14:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is supported by import constraints and shipping inversions, with a focus on high dividend value [2][7] - Despite weak demand in the off-season, coal prices are expected to remain stable due to supply constraints and market dynamics [16][76] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, particularly those with strong cash flows and high dividend yields [7][78] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Port inventories have increased, leading to a slight decrease in port prices by 2 CNY/ton [16] - As of April 16, the capacity utilization rate in the main production areas has increased by 0.31 percentage points [16] - Daily coal consumption at coastal and inland power plants has decreased significantly, with coastal plants down by 18.4 thousand tons and inland plants down by 33.7 thousand tons [16][26] 2. Coking Coal - Production has slightly rebounded, with capacity utilization decreasing by 0.37 percentage points to 87.4% [41] - The average customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu port has decreased by 51 vehicles week-on-week [46] - Overall, coking coal inventories have continued to decline, with a reduction of 30.57 thousand tons this week [49] 3. Coke - The supply-demand situation for coke continues to improve, with production rates increasing due to better profitability [53] - The average daily iron output has slightly decreased after seven weeks of growth, but demand for coke remains strong [53][65] - Domestic coke prices have increased, with the price at Rizhao port rising by 50 CNY/ton [53] 4. Anthracite - The anthracite market remains stable, with prices holding steady despite fluctuations in demand [73] 5. Key Companies and Investment Logic - The report emphasizes the investment value of leading coal companies, highlighting their strong asset quality and cash flow [7][78] - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, among others [9][10]