SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-04-20 15:27Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [87]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index decreased by 2.15% this week, while the overall market indices showed mixed performance, with the agricultural sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [12][13]. - New Zealand's beef prices are expected to rise due to increasing global beef prices, benefiting local exporters [3][23]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing a supply pressure with a potential for price declines, but the overall sentiment is stabilizing after previous pessimism [4][41]. - Poultry prices are showing signs of recovery, particularly for white feather chickens, as consumer demand gradually improves [5][57]. - The dairy and beef sectors are anticipated to see a recovery in prices as supply constraints develop [66]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2612.71 points, down 2.15% week-on-week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19% [12][13]. - The top-performing sectors this week were banking and real estate, while agriculture ranked lower [13]. 2. New Zealand Beef Market - New Zealand's beef industry is heavily export-oriented, with over 90% of beef produced being exported [3][23]. - The beef production in New Zealand for 2024 is projected at 694,300 tons, a decrease of 3.89% year-on-year, with exports expected to follow a similar trend [23]. 3. Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.57 kg, indicating a high level compared to historical data [4][40]. - The current price for pigs is 14.97 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.11% [39]. - The report suggests that the pig farming sector is at a valuation bottom, with potential for recovery if supply constraints are managed [41][42]. 4. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens has increased to 7.50 CNY/kg, up 2.18% from the previous week [57]. - The poultry sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in consumer demand and a potential increase in high-end product consumption [5][57]. 5. Dairy and Beef Industry - The dairy sector is facing a reduction in production capacity, which may lead to price stabilization in the latter half of 2025 [66]. - The report highlights a potential upward trend in beef prices as supply constraints are expected to tighten [66]. 6. Planting Industry - The report notes fluctuations in grain prices, with corn prices at 2,204.29 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase [66]. - The planting sector is expected to stabilize as domestic agricultural policies are implemented [68]. 7. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have remained stable, with pig feed priced at 3.35 CNY/kg [77]. - Aquaculture prices are also stable, with no significant changes reported in major fish species [77].