宏观与大类资产周报：继续看国内股债双牛-20250420

Domestic Economic Outlook - Short-term pressures on real estate and exports are evident, with midstream production affected by tariffs leading to a general decline in operating rates[1] - Upstream investment chain shows continued improvement, but the slope is flat, indicating insufficient fiscal policy strength to offset export downturns[1] - Recent transactions in the commodity housing market and second-hand housing listings remain weak[1] International Trade and Policy - The WTO forecasts a 0.2% decline in global merchandise trade this year, with a potential drop of 1.5% under extreme "reciprocal tariffs" scenarios, marking the largest decline since 2020[1] - The U.S. administration may shift focus from tariffs to a new tax reduction plan and financial deregulation as the 100-day policy review period ends[1] - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine/Japan could influence U.S. pressure on other non-American countries depending on the concessions made[1] Monetary and Liquidity Trends - The liquidity environment remains stable despite multiple disturbances, with the central bank's open market operations providing support[23] - The average weekly transaction volume in the interbank pledged repo market decreased to 63,252 billion yuan, down by 3,913 billion yuan from the previous week[24] - Government bond issuance reached 635.6 billion yuan this week, with net repayments significantly higher than the previous week[25] Asset Performance - A-share market shows mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.19% while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.54%[44] - International oil and gold prices have both increased, reflecting a positive trend in commodity markets[41] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets amid economic uncertainties[43]