五矿期货早报有色金属-20250421

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term prices of various non - ferrous metals show different trends. Copper may be in a volatile state, aluminum is expected to be supported by inventory decline, lead may have a box - type shock in the medium - term, zinc has a downward risk in the medium - term, tin will be in a high - level shock, nickel is recommended to short at high prices, lithium carbonate may be in a weak shock, and stainless steel prices are restricted by cost and market sentiment [2][4][7][8][10][11][13][17] Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, LME copper rose 0.76% to $9254/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 75900 yuan/ton. Three major exchanges' inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons. The cash/3M in the LME market changed from premium to discount. The domestic basis increased. The scrap copper supply was tight, and the scrap - refined price difference narrowed. In the short - term, the price may be volatile, with the SHFE copper main contract running between 75000 - 77500 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9000 - 9400 dollars/ton [2] Aluminum - Last week, LME aluminum fell 0.5% to $2385/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 19785 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and bar inventories decreased. The photovoltaic demand for aluminum was strong. In the short - term, the price is expected to be supported by inventory decline, with the SHFE aluminum main contract running between 19200 - 20200 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M between 2350 - 2480 dollars/ton [4] Lead - Last week, SHFE lead index rose 0.71% to 16864 yuan/ton. The supply is overall loose, and the demand is stable. In the medium - term, the SHFE lead index is expected to fluctuate between 16300 - 17800, and the short - term price is strong [7] Zinc - Last week, SHFE zinc index rose 0.25% to 22056 yuan/ton. The zinc supply is expected to be loose, and the downstream demand may weaken after the peak season. In the short - term, the price will be in a low - level shock, and there is a downward risk in the medium - term [8] Tin - Last week, tin prices were volatile. Supply is expected to decrease in April, and demand has improved but its sustainability is uncertain. In the short - term, the price will be in a high - level shock, with the domestic main contract running between 260000 - 320000 yuan and LME tin between 34000 - 39000 dollars [9][10] Nickel - Last week, nickel prices recovered. The macro situation is uncertain. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices, with the SHFE nickel main contract running between 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 15000 - 16300 dollars/ton [11] Carbonate Lithium - The MMLC index and LC2505 contract price both declined. The price is in the bottom - cost area, with weak supply and demand expectations. It is expected to be in a weak shock, and the 2505 contract of GZEE is expected to run between 69500 - 70500 yuan/ton [13] Alumina - On April 18, the alumina index fell 1.96% to 2800 yuan/ton. The supply is in excess, but the number of maintenance enterprises is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, with the domestic main contract AO2505 running between 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton [15] Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12780 yuan/ton. The inventory increased slightly, and the sales slowed down. The cost limits the price decline. Follow the raw material prices and macro - economic environment [17]