山金期货黑色板块日报-20250421

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US imposing a 245% tariff on China has led to trade tensions, disturbing the market and dragging down black series commodities. It's expected that policy hedging measures will be introduced soon. The downstream demand has entered a peak period in April. Although the real - estate market in core cities shows signs of recovery, low - tier cities are still in the bottom - building process. For both steel products and iron ore, the futures prices are short - term uncertain, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [2][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Impact Factors: The US tariff on China and trade tensions have negatively affected the downstream consumption and exports of steel products. The downstream demand has entered a peak period in April. The real - estate market in core cities may be stabilizing, while low - tier cities are still bottoming out [2] - Market Conditions: Last week, the production of threaded rods decreased, factory and social inventories declined, and the total inventory continued to fall. The apparent demand increased month - on - month. Technically, the futures price rebounded after breaking the previous low, with short - term uncertainty [2] - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions lightly [2] - Data Summary: - Price: The closing price of the threaded rod main contract was 3076 yuan/ton, down 1.76% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3181 yuan/ton, down 1.88% from last week [2] - Production: The national building materials steel mill threaded rod production was 229.22 million tons, down 1.36% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production was 314.4 million tons, up 0.35% from last week [2] - Inventory: The five - variety social inventory was 1124.83 million tons, down 4.41% from last week; the threaded rod social inventory was 532.76 million tons, down 5.39% from last week [2] 2. Iron Ore - Market Impact Factors: Global trade tensions are disturbing the market. The downstream demand has entered a peak period in April, which may support the futures price. The real - estate market in individual hot cities is picking up, while low - tier cities are still bottoming out. The global shipment is at a relatively high level, and the national port inventory has rebounded [3] - Market Conditions: The iron water production of 247 steel mills reached 240.21 million tons last week, close to last year's peak, and it's expected to have peaked. Technically, the futures price fell sharply after breaking the previous low and then stabilized and rebounded, with a high probability of oscillating downward in the future [3] - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions lightly [3] - Data Summary: - Price: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 699 yuan/dry ton, down 1.27% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 97.5 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.87% from last week [3] - Supply: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1568.1 million tons, up 0.03% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment was 630.1 million tons, down 4.21% from last week [3] - Inventory: The 45 - port imported iron ore inventory was 14056.00 million tons, down 285.02 million tons from last week; the 45 - port daily average ore handling volume was 309.51 million tons, down 8.54 million tons from last week [3] 3. Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports decreased by 285.02 million tons, and the daily average ore handling volume decreased by 8.54 million tons. In the first quarter, the steel industry was generally stable, with the output of construction steel bars decreasing by 2.9% year - on - year and the crude steel output increasing slightly by 0.6% year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.28 percentage points week - on - week, the profitability rate increased by 1.30 percentage points week - on - week, and the daily average iron water output decreased by 0.10 million tons week - on - week [7]