中泰期货晨会纪要-20250421

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is currently affected by various factors such as global trade wars, US tariff policies, and domestic economic policies. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [4]. - For futures trading, different strategies are recommended for various commodities according to their supply - demand relationships, price trends, and external factors. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The Chinese government is taking measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high - quality development, including encouraging enterprises to stabilize employment, supporting foreign investment, and promoting service consumption [4]. - Fiscal revenue in the first quarter decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, while fiscal expenditure increased by 4.2% [4]. - In Beijing, the new - start area of real estate development increased by 19.1% year - on - year in the first quarter, and the sales area of new commercial housing increased by 6.2%, but the residential sales area decreased by 2.7% [4]. - The US government is discussing forming a working group to deal with supply - chain crises caused by high tariffs on Chinese goods [4]. 3.2 Futures Market 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Consider IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or stay on the sidelines. The market trading volume has shrunk, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The market is affected by policy expectations and economic data [4]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - In the case that reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts do not exceed expectations, maintain a moderately optimistic attitude towards ultra - long - term bonds. Pay attention to reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [4]. 3.2.3 Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - Consider taking appropriate profit on short positions. The market has absorbed the expected increase in freight rates during the peak season and supply - side pressure. The freight rate may face different situations in May, with potential short - term tightness and long - term oversupply [4][5]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - Cotton: The domestic cotton price is under pressure and fluctuates at a low level. The impact of US tariffs, USDA reports, and domestic supply - demand conditions all affect cotton prices. Although there was good export data in March, the overall situation is still not optimistic [5][6]. - Sugar: The sugar price fluctuates due to factors such as the start of the new sugar - making season in Brazil, the reduction in India's production, and the uncertainty of the supply - demand gap [7][8]. - Oils and Oilseeds: Short palm oil at high prices and long soybean meal at low prices. The production of palm oil is in the seasonal increase period, while the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase in the future [9][10]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the future [10]. - Apples: Consider lightly buying near - month contracts at low prices. The spot price is firm, the inventory is low, and the market consumption is in a good state [10]. - Jujubes: Hold short positions and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak [10]. - Pigs: Consider shorting the LH2507 contract at high prices. The demand is in the off - season, and the supply is increasing [11]. 3.2.5 Energy - Crude Oil: The price of crude oil has rebounded slightly. OPEC+ plans to increase production in May, and the US economic slowdown and trade wars affect the demand. The market is in a state of super - decline repair, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly strong [12]. - Fuel Oil: The demand for fuel oil is declining, but there is still power - generation demand in the high - sulfur summer. It is expected to fluctuate with the oil price [13]. 3.2.6 Chemicals - Plastic: L is expected to fluctuate weakly, while PP can be considered for long positions in the near - month contract after a correction and short positions in the far - month contract [14]. - Methanol: The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the increase in supply and the weakening of demand [15]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price of caustic soda is expected to be weak after a restocking cycle. The futures price is expected to follow a similar trend [16]. - Soda Ash and Glass: The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly due to high supply and inventory. The price of glass is expected to be weak as the market expectation is pessimistic [17][18]. - Asphalt: The price of asphalt is expected to be in the range of 3250 - 3350 yuan without a significant increase in crude oil prices [19]. - Pulp: The fundamentals are short - term weak. Pay attention to the arrival rhythm in April and the inventory rhythm [20][21]. - Urea: Keep a long - position idea for the UR09 contract at low prices as the supply and demand are expected to be strong in the later stage [22]. 3.2.7 Metals - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate weakly, while alumina is expected to oscillate at the bottom and can be considered for long positions at low prices [23]. - Lithium Carbonate: Consider an oscillatory approach as the short - term price is mainly affected by its own supply - demand changes [24]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is expected to be bearish, while polysilicon has over - supply pressure in the medium term [26][27]. - Steel and Iron Ore: The market is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline weakly in the long term [27][28]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The price of coking coal and coke is expected to be weak in the short term [30]. - Ferroalloys: Short manganese silicon at high prices and long silicon iron at low prices [31].