Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-04-21 01:45Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polysilicon industry is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current futures price of polysilicon has significantly factored in the future weakening of its fundamentals. Attention should be paid to whether the southwestern production capacity will resume production as scheduled during the wet season after the price decline, and whether there is a possibility of higher-than-expected wafer production scheduling from May to June. Before the large-scale generation of warehouse receipts, it is more reasonable to value the market with a premium delivery. Strategies suggest focusing on the positive spread opportunities of PS2506 - 2507/PS2507 - PS2508 and the opportunity to go long on PS2512 at low prices [5][27] Summary by Directory 1. Event Overview - This week, polysilicon futures dropped significantly. The main PS2506 contract fell 10%, closing at 37,615 yuan/ton, hitting a record low since listing. PS2507 and PS2511 closed at 36,180 and 35,830 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly declines of 11.8% and 10.9%. The positive spreads of PS2506 - PS2507 and PS2506 - PS2511 first widened significantly, with the monthly spreads reaching a maximum of 1,915 yuan/ton and 3,270 yuan/ton respectively, and then quickly narrowed to 1,435 yuan/ton and 1,785 yuan/ton [2][9] 2. Reasons for the Decline: Weak Fundamentals - Since mid - April, the photovoltaic rush - installation wave has gradually subsided, and the prices of downstream components, cells, and wafers have started to decline from their highs. The upstream and downstream inventories in the polysilicon segment are high. From March to April, wafer manufacturers mainly digested their existing raw material inventories and had low procurement enthusiasm. After the rush - installation wave, polysilicon prices began to fall [10] - In April, the polysilicon production schedule is expected to be around 100,000 tons, and in May, it is expected to increase to around 110,000 tons. In May, the wafer production schedule is expected to be over 60GW, and polysilicon is expected to continue to reduce inventory by 10,000 tons. However, it is generally expected that the Tongwei bases in Sichuan and Yunnan will resume production during the wet season. From June to November, the monthly polysilicon production schedule is expected to increase to over 130,000 tons, while the wafer production schedule will decline after June, and polysilicon may accumulate 20,000 - 30,000 tons of inventory per month [3][13] 3. How to Value the Futures: Discount Delivery or Premium Delivery? - The production of delivery goods is different from spot production. Currently, silicon material manufacturers use their spot production lines for regular business with downstream customers, and produce delivery goods through newly established production lines (with a preparation time of about 1 month), which is expected to increase the production cost by 1,000 - 2,000 yuan/ton. This means that delivery goods have a natural premium over spot N - type dense materials [4][22] - Although the delivery goods of polysilicon have a premium in quality and price for downstream wafer manufacturers, and wafer manufacturers need a discount to accept warehouse receipts, the long - side includes not only wafer manufacturers but also futures - cash merchants. When the monthly spread is appropriate, futures - cash merchants can complete the initial inventory build - up by taking delivery through positive spreads on the futures market [26] 4. Investment Recommendations - The current futures price has significantly factored in the future weakening of polysilicon fundamentals. Attention should be paid to whether the southwestern production capacity will resume production as scheduled during the wet season after the price decline, and whether there is a possibility of higher - than - expected wafer production scheduling from May to June. As of April 18, there are only 10 lots (30 tons) of polysilicon warehouse receipts. Before the large - scale generation of warehouse receipts, it is more reasonable to value the market with a premium delivery. Based on the current absolute futures price, it is difficult for new warehouse receipts to be generated for contracts after 07. Strategies suggest focusing on the positive spread opportunities of PS2506 - 2507/PS2507 - PS2508 and the opportunity to go long on PS2512 at low prices [5][27]