对二甲苯：中期趋势偏弱，多PX空PTA，PTA：中期趋势偏弱，多PTA空MEG止盈

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX: Short - term is relatively strong, but the medium - term trend is weak. PXN valuation is at a low level, and it is advisable to go long on dips. Future supply and demand will both increase, overseas device operating rates are falling, and PX processing fees have shrunk significantly [6][7]. - PTA: Short - term rebound is strong, but the medium - term is still weak. It is recommended to short on rallies unilaterally. Do basis and calendar spread reverse arbitrage. Take profit on the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Conduct a hedging operation of going long on PR and short on PTA [8]. - MEG: The impact of tariffs on ethane cracking plants is gradually emerging. Go long on MEG and short on PTA for the 09 contract, and do 9 - 1 calendar spread positive arbitrage. The short - term is a rebound, and the medium - term trend is weak [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Price and Change: On April 17, 2025, the PX main contract closed at 6034, up 1.8% daily; PTA closed at 4294, up 1.7%; MEG closed at 4113, unchanged; PF closed at 5946, up 1.0%; SC closed at 3441, up 3.4% [2]. - Calendar Spread: For PX (5 - 9), the value on April 17 was - 70; for PTA (5 - 9), it was - 28; for MEG (5 - 9), it was - 47; for PF(5 - 6), it was - 44; for PX - EB05, it was - 1403. The daily change of MEG (5 - 9) was - 13, and that of PF(5 - 6) was 18, and PX - EB05 was 25 [2]. - Inter - variety Spread: On April 17, PTA05 - 0.65PX05 was 360, PTA05 - MEG05 was 153, PTA05 - PF05 was - 1636, PF05's processing margin on the disk was 877, and PTA05 - LU05 was 739. The daily changes were 3, 71, - 4, 14, and - 105 respectively [2]. - Basis and Other Spreads: On April 17, the PX basis was 118, PTA basis was - 8, MEG basis was 56, PF basis was 164, and the PX - naphtha spread was 172. The daily changes were 39, 12, - 12, 22, and 3 respectively. The PTA warehouse receipts decreased by 1,963, and SC warehouse receipts decreased by 40,000 [2]. Market Overview - PX: On April 18, the PX price in the Chinese market was estimated at 738 - 740 USD/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; in the South Korean market, it was 718 - 720 USD/ton, also unchanged. South Korea's PX exports in March decreased by 1.75% month - on - month to 370,742 tons. Exports to China decreased by about 2.23% to 295,948 tons, and to Unv1 decreased by 25% to 34,282 tons. However, exports to the US increased by about 39% to 40,512 tons [4]. - PTA: On April 18, PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere weakened, the spot basis loosened slightly. The 4 - month goods were traded at 05 + 20~25, with the price negotiation range around 4290 - 4330. The mainstream spot basis on the 18th was 05 + 22 [5]. - MEG: The ethylene glycol load of a 100 - million - ton/year EO - EG co - production unit in East China decreased by about 20% recently and is expected to last for a long time. The restart time of a 36 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol unit in the US is still undetermined. On April 17, the MEG shipment from a mainstream warehouse in Zhangjiagang was about 6800 tons, and from two mainstream warehouses in Taicang was about 7400 tons [5]. - Polyester: A 25 - million - ton polyester film device in Zhejiang was put into production in mid - February, and the supporting film device was put into production in early April. A 30 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip device in the Southwest was restarted recently [5]. - Polyester Yarn Sales: On April 18, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased locally, with an average sales rate of about 90% by 4 pm. The sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories decreased moderately, with an average sales rate of 80% by 3 pm [6].