高频数据跟踪：生产走势分化，大宗商品价格企稳回升

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - High - frequency economic data focuses on three aspects: production - end industry trends are differentiated, with steel demand growing and some industries'开工率 rising while others falling; commercial housing transactions and land supply areas slightly decline, basically in line with the same period last year; commodity prices have stabilized and recovered, with significant increases in crude oil and coking coal prices and a slight increase in copper prices, but still not fully recovering previous losses. Short - term focus is on the implementation of new stable - growth stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and commodity price trends [1][32] Summary by Directory 1. Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization increased by 0.42 pct, blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.28 pct, and rebar production decreased by 3.15 tons. On the week of April 18, the coke oven capacity utilization of domestic independent coking plants (230 samples) was 73.41%, and the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills (247 samples) was 83.56%. National building material steel mill rebar production was 229.22 tons, and inventory was 200.4 tons, down 14.26 tons from the previous week [2][10] - Petroleum asphalt: The operating rate increased by 1.1 pct. On the week of April 16, the domestic petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 28.7% [2][10] - Chemical industry: PX operating rate decreased by 1.16 pct, and PTA decreased by 1.16 pct. On April 17, the domestic chemical PX operating rate was 77.54%, and the PTA operating rate was 76.41% [2][10] - Automobile tires: The all - steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.72 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.08 pct from a high level. On the week of April 17, the all - steel tire operating rate was 65.43%, and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 78.44% [2][11] 2. Demand - Real estate: Commercial housing transaction area continued to decline, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased; land transaction area slightly decreased, and the residential land transaction premium rate decreased. On the week of April 13, 30 large and medium - sized cities had commercial housing transactions of 149.21 million square meters, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 10 large cities was 79.52. The supply of land in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 1355.82 million square meters, and the residential land transaction premium rate was 8.97 [14] - Movie box office: It decreased by 226 million yuan compared with the previous week. On the week of April 13, the national movie box office revenue was 236 million yuan [14] - Automobile: On the week of April 13, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increased by 8786 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 16725 vehicles. The daily average retail sales of national passenger car manufacturers were 43704 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales were 52131 vehicles [17] - Shipping index: SCFI decreased by 1.73%, CCFI increased by 0.33%, and BDI decreased by 0.63%. On the week of April 18, SCFI was 1370.58 points, CCFI was 1110.94 points, and on April 17, BDI was 1261 points [3][20] 3. Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price increased by 4.94% to 67.96 US dollars per barrel. On April 17, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures (continuous contract) was 67.96 US dollars per barrel [22] - Coking coal: The futures price increased by 5.18% to 944.5 yuan per ton. On April 18, the settlement price of coking coal futures (active contract) was 944.5 yuan per ton [22] - Metals: The changes in LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices were + 0.05%, - 1.29%, and - 2.81% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 1.22%. On April 17, the closing price of LME copper futures (active contract) was 9188.5 US dollars per ton, LME aluminum was 2365.5 US dollars per ton, LME zinc was 2577 US dollars per ton, and the domestic rebar futures settlement price was 3088 yuan per ton [23] - Agricultural products: The overall price decreased, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreasing by 0.43%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by + 0.05%, + 1.75%, - 3.93%, and + 0.94% respectively compared with the previous week. On April 18, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was 119.03, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.85 yuan per kilogram, eggs were 8.15 yuan per kilogram, 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables were 4.65 yuan per kilogram, and 7 kinds of key - monitored fruits were 7.48 yuan per kilogram [25][26] 4. Logistics - Subway passenger volume: In Beijing, the passenger volume decreased, while in Shanghai, it increased. On April 17, the seven - day moving average of Beijing subway passenger volume was 9.0626 million person - times, and that of Shanghai was 10.5886 million person - times [27] - Flight volume: Both domestic and international flight volumes increased. On April 18, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume was 12647.57 flights, domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) was 362.57 flights, and international was 1758.57 flights [29] - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities increased significantly. On April 18, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities was 1.8 [29]