集运指数（欧线）：低位震荡，10-12反套轻仓持有

Report Title - The report focuses on the Container Shipping Index (European Line), with a title of "Container Shipping Index (European Line): Low-level Fluctuation, Hold 10 - 12 Inverse Spread Positions Lightly" [1] Core Viewpoints - The 2606 contract may be traded based on the spot freight rate trend in May, currently in a stage of weak reality (shipping companies cut prices to stock up at the end of April and failed to raise prices in early May) and weak expectations (no easing of Sino-US tariffs), and may fluctuate at a low level on a weekly basis. Attention should be paid to whether shipping companies can establish continuous rolling in the case of many blank sailings in early May to build momentum for price increases in late May. If the cargo collection is poor in early May, the increase in capacity in late May may lead to greater cargo collection pressure. The 2508 contract mainly reflects the expected trading of changes in Sino-US tariff policies. There are significant differences in the 2510 contract. Some long funds believe that the US inventory replenishment may last until October, which may require transferring ships from the European line, benefiting the European line. However, it is considered that September - October is the off - season of the European line, and shipping companies need to suspend sailings to slow down the decline of freight rates. Whether the US inventory replenishment in October requires transferring ships from the European line and the transfer intensity remain to be observed, and the 2510 contract mainly fluctuates following the valuation of the 2508 contract [15] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Fundamental Tracking Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Data - EC2504: Yesterday's closing price was 1,419.7, with a daily decline of 0.47%, trading volume of 3, open interest of 5,148, a decrease of 10 in open interest, yesterday's trading volume to open interest ratio of 0.03, and the previous day's ratio of 0.07 [1] - EC2506: Yesterday's closing price was 1,533.0, with a daily decline of 1.11%, trading volume of 53,941, open interest of 36,130, a decrease of 817 in open interest, yesterday's trading volume to open interest ratio of 1.49, and the previous day's ratio of 1.81 [1] - EC2508: Yesterday's closing price was 1,653.8, with a daily increase of 0.39%, trading volume of 17,645, open interest of 30,029, a decrease of 746 in open interest, yesterday's trading volume to open interest ratio of 0.59, and the previous day's ratio of 0.65 [1] Spot Freight Rate Data - The SCFIS European route and US - West route data are presented, along with the SCFI European route ($/TEU) and US - West route ($/FEU) data for different shipping companies such as Maersk, MSC, etc. The exchange rate of the US dollar index and the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 99.23 and 7.30 respectively. The European line freight rate index has a weekly increase of - 4.5% and a bi - weekly increase of - 2.9% [1] Shipping Capacity Data China - Europe Base Shipping Capacity - Weekly shipping capacity data shows the capacity of different alliances such as Gemini, OA, PA, and MSC. Monthly average weekly shipping capacity data from February to June 2025 is also provided, with the capacity of different alliances varying in different months [7][9] - The shipping capacity from April to June 2025 for different shipping companies and routes is presented in a table, with the total shipping capacity in some periods reaching up to 33.6 million TEU [11] Shipping Capacity Transfer from US Line to European Line - A total of 13 ships are transferred from the US line to the European line, with a total capacity of 170,132 TEU. The details include the week, shipping company, ship name, ship size, original US line code, current European line code, and Shanghai ETD/ATD [13] Macro and Industry News - The Hamas delegation held talks with the Turkish Foreign Minister on a cease - fire in Gaza on April 20. The two sides discussed issues such as stopping Israel's attacks on Gaza and reaching a comprehensive cease - fire agreement [15] - Trump said on April 17 that he was confident about reaching an agreement with China, expecting things to be settled in the next three to four weeks [15]