金信期货日刊-20250421

Report Information - Report Name: Goldtrust Futures Daily - Date: April 21, 2025 Core Viewpoints - The glass futures price is struggling to rise due to a relatively loose supply - demand pattern, high inventory pressure, and a lack of strong upward - driving factors [2][3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index and other large - cap stocks support the index, while small - and medium - cap stocks represented by the CSI 1000 oscillate in the 5550 - 5750 range in the short term [7] - Macroeconomic uncertainties have a significant positive impact on gold and other precious metals [11] - The iron ore price may be supported by short - term replenishment demand during the steel mill's复产 cycle but is constrained by long - term capacity expansion. Trade friction may have an indirect negative impact [15] - The glass futures market turns to a short - term oscillating and bearish outlook due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [19] - Domestic soybeans used for food processing are in a long - term oversupply situation and are difficult to maintain high prices for a long time [23] Industry Analysis Glass Futures - Supply - demand: The overall supply has an increasing expectation, while downstream demand growth is slow. The weekend sales in Shahe weakened, and the shipment in East China slowed down, resulting in a loose market pattern [3] - Inventory: As of the week of April 17, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 65.078 million heavy boxes, with a week - on - week decrease of 125,000 heavy boxes (0.19%), but still at a high level [3] - Driving factors: There are no significant positive factors such as large - scale policy stimulus or concentrated demand outbreaks [4] Stock Index Futures - Market performance: Large - cap stocks support the index, and small - and medium - cap stocks oscillate in the 5550 - 5750 range in the short term [7] Gold - Macroeconomic impact: High uncertainty and randomness in policies, deterioration of global trade, and increased recession expectations are beneficial to gold [11] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: Short - term replenishment demand during the steel mill's复产 cycle may support the price, but long - term capacity expansion is a constraint. Trade friction may indirectly reduce exports and steel demand [15] - Market sentiment: Risk - aversion may lead to capital outflows. Domestic policies may have a supporting effect [15] Glass - Market situation: The daily melting volume is low, spot sales have improved slightly, but factory inventories are high, and downstream demand depends on real - estate stimulus or major policies [19] - Technical analysis: The futures price dropped significantly, breaking the previous consolidation platform, with a short - term bearish outlook [19] Soybean (Domestic) - Supply - demand: Domestic soybeans are mainly for food processing, in a long - term oversupply situation, and lack competitiveness in oil - pressing compared with imported soybeans [23] - Price trend: After the recent strong rebound of soybean futures, the price difference between domestic and foreign soybeans has widened rapidly, and it is difficult to maintain high prices for a long time [23]