国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250421

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to fluctuate after a rally, while silver is likely to stabilize and rebound [2][4]. - Copper prices are supported by continuous inventory reduction [2][10]. - Aluminum is expected to show a slightly bullish trend, whereas alumina is predicted to continue falling [2][13]. - Zinc supply increments are gradually materializing, potentially capping its upside [2][15]. - Lead is expected to trade within a range [2][18]. - Nickel has support from mining - end contradictions but limited upside due to relative economic factors, and stainless steel is under negative - feedback pressure on valuation with cost decline but still has a floor [2][21]. - Tin is expected to have a slight recovery [2][24]. - Industrial silicon has a weak fundamental outlook and its futures price will fluctuate at a low level, and polysilicon has a weak spot price and its futures price is bearish [2][29]. - Lithium carbonate is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating at the bottom [2][32]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Fundamental Data: For gold, the closing price of沪金2504 was 791.02 with a daily increase of 0.23%, and the closing price of黄金T+D was 787.20 with a daily decrease of 0.02%. For silver, the closing price of沪银2504 was 8160 with a daily decrease of 0.01%. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, ETF holdings, and inventory [5]. - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity is 1, and silver trend intensity is 0 [8]. Copper - Fundamental Data: The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 76,140 with a daily increase of 0.48%. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, inventory, and various price spreads [10]. - Macro and Industry News: The government is researching measures to stabilize employment and the economy, and there are developments in copper - related projects and policies, such as a new copper mine project in Arizona and a call to limit copper ore and scrap copper exports in the US [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 0 [12]. Aluminum and Alumina - Fundamental Data: In March 2025, China's alumina exports increased significantly, while imports decreased. Aluminum ingot imports continued to rise, with a high proportion from Russia [13][14]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, and alumina trend intensity is 0 [14]. Zinc - Fundamental Data: The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22050 with a daily increase of 0.27%. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, various price spreads, and inventory [15]. - News: Some zinc smelters plan to increase production or postpone maintenance, and China responded to the US 301 investigation [16]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [16]. Lead - Fundamental Data: The closing price of沪铅主力 was 16855 with a daily increase of 0.63%. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, various price spreads, and inventory [18]. - News: China responded to the US 301 investigation [19]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 0 [19]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and various price spreads of沪镍主力 and不锈钢主力. There were also developments in the nickel industry chain, such as changes in high - nickel pig iron prices and nickel plate - high - nickel iron spreads [21]. - Macro and Industry News: Some nickel production projects in Indonesia are increasing production, and there are policy changes in nickel resource taxes in Indonesia [21][22]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [23]. Tin - Fundamental Data: The closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 256,250 with a daily decrease of 0.59%. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, inventory, and various price spreads [25]. - Macro and Industry News: There are political and international news events, such as Trump's statements on tariffs and calls for Fed rate cuts [25][26]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is 0 [28]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and various price spreads of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. Industrial silicon inventory data and polysilicon factory inventory data were also provided [29]. - Macro and Industry News: A photovoltaic aluminum frame project held a groundbreaking ceremony [31]. - Trend Intensity: Industrial silicon trend intensity is - 1, and polysilicon trend intensity is - 1 [31]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and various price spreads of lithium carbonate futures contracts. There were also changes in raw material prices and lithium salt product prices [32]. - Macro and Industry News: There were developments in lithium - related projects, such as the transfer of a lithium mine's mining right and the termination of a lithium - related project [33][34]. - Trend Intensity: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0 [34].