沪锌早报：汽车出口水平超高，前期锌需求偏强-20250421

Report 1: Futures Research Report - Shanghai Zinc Morning Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc - Temporarily on the sidelines [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The export level of automobiles is extremely high, and the demand for zinc in the early stage is relatively strong. However, in the medium - term, the supply of zinc is loose, and zinc prices still face downward pressure [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - In 2025, China's import and export scale increased steadily with improved quality, but the export growth rate slowed down. Automobile and auto - parts exports reached extremely high levels, and motorcycle exports also grew strongly. The monthly export of lithium - ion batteries remained stable at about $5 billion [1] Mine End - In terms of TC changes, the mine end has become fully loose. The TC price in the zinc concentrate market continued to rebound, and the degree of looseness at the mine end increased again [1] Smelting - Smelting profits have been quickly repaired as processing fees rebounded. Pure smelting enterprises are profitable without considering by - product profits. Zinc concentrate enterprises' profits remain high, and the overall profits of integrated enterprises are at a high level. It is expected that smelting output will be high, and the supply side will be fully loose. If the TC price rises to about 4,000 yuan/ton under optimistic conditions, the maximum decline space of zinc prices is expected to remain above 20,000 yuan/ton [2] Demand - The profit of downstream galvanizing is in the process of repair, and the current level is at the middle position since 2018. The consumer - end profit is acceptable and the inventory is low, so the demand side may drive zinc prices to a certain extent. However, in the medium - term, the core contradiction of loose supply remains unchanged, and zinc prices still face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the support at the previous low of 21,000 yuan/ton [2] Conclusion - Sino - US trade concerns still exist, but the market expects the US attitude to ease, and the sector sentiment has eased. Zinc ingot复产 is on the way, and the uncertainty of galvanizing output growth is still high, which may weaken in the medium - term [2] Operation Suggestion - Wait for an opportunity to short; if there is no rebound, the downward space is limited [3] Report 2: Futures Research Report - Nickel and Stainless Steel Morning Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Nickel - Short after a rebound - Stainless steel - On the sidelines [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Indonesia's new nickel product tax policy will be implemented, which will intensify nickel price fluctuations. In the short - term, nickel prices have rebounded, but the fundamental surplus trend remains unchanged [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - The Indonesian government officially implemented a new tax policy for nickel products on April 26, 2025. The royalties for various nickel products are dynamically adjusted according to the benchmark price HMA, with ranges such as 14% - 19% for nickel ore, 5% - 7% for nickel pig iron, etc [4] Mine End - Indonesia plans to increase mining royalties in the second week of April, which may support the price framework. In the Philippines, the rainy season in the Surigao mining area continues, and nickel ore prices may rise slightly in the near future. However, the seasonal tightness of nickel ore will improve after April, and there is no continuous upward momentum for mine - end prices [4] Smelting - China imports relatively little pure nickel, while domestic production has recovered rapidly. Although the total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month, the overall supply remains at the highest level in the same period of history. The production cost of electrowinning nickel reached 124,000 yuan/ton at the end of February. The upper pressure line can be determined by the cost of external procurement manufacturers and the critical point of downstream nickel sulfate. The demand support provided by the cost of downstream nickel sulfate is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point of external procurement manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton, both of which have decreased compared with before [5] Demand - Stainless steel is not on the US tariff list. Therefore, under the premise that nickel is on the tariff list, the export demand for stainless steel may increase, forming a strong - weak relationship with nickel. The relatively firm price of nickel iron makes the profit of stainless steel manufacturers low, which may affect subsequent production and reduce the demand for nickel [5] Conclusion - Sino - US trade concerns still exist, but the market expects the US attitude to ease, and the sector sentiment has eased. Due to the previous price reaching the cost - expected level, nickel prices rebounded in the short - term. However, the fundamental surplus trend remains unchanged, and the support at the mine end is not sustainable. Attention should be paid to the improvement of the tight pressure at the mine end after the Philippines emerges from the rainy season and the difference in demand strength between stainless steel and nickel due to the US tariff policy [5] Operation Suggestion - Short after a rebound [6]