信达期货沪镍周报-20250421

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current monthly production cost of electrowinning nickel is about 124,000 yuan/ton, which forms short - term support. The supply of nickel ore is expected to return to the loose level in the second half of 2024, and the cost may drop to 118,000 yuan/ton. The upper limit of the profit safety margin of the downstream nickel sulfate industry is 134,000 yuan/ton, and the cost of the external procurement of high - grade nickel matte process route is about 137,000 yuan/ton. The short - term support level of Shanghai nickel contracts can be anchored at 124,000 yuan/ton, the secondary upper pressure level is 134,000 yuan/ton, and the primary pressure level is 137,000 yuan/ton (consider heavy - position short - selling at this position). The rolling short - selling strategy is safer than the range operation. After the rainy season in the Philippines ends, the market focus will return to fundamental pricing, and there is a risk of a systematic decline in nickel prices, but the probability of a trend market in the medium - term market is low, and prices will fluctuate within a range based on the cost anchor [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Market 1.1 Viewpoints and Suggestions - The short - term support level of Shanghai nickel contracts is 124,000 yuan/ton, the secondary upper pressure level is 134,000 yuan/ton, and the primary pressure level is 137,000 yuan/ton. The rolling short - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to cost support [10]. 1.2 Market Data - This week, the closing price of LME nickel rose by 3.67%, Shanghai nickel rose by 3.54%, and stainless steel rose by 0.63%. In the spot market, the average price of electrolytic nickel rose by 4.26%, Jinchuan nickel rose by 3.89%, and Russian nickel rose by 4.60%. The price of high - grade nickel iron remained unchanged, and the price of low - grade nickel iron was 3,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium of electrolytic nickel was 250 yuan/ton. The inventory of LME nickel was 204,492 tons (N/A this week), and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.86% to 30,332 tons. The import profit and loss was - 4,235 yuan, a 48.21% change, and the price difference between electrolytic nickel and nickel iron (converted to yuan/ton) increased by 27.59% to 24,050 yuan [12][13]. 2. Supply - Demand Changes - The report presents data on nickel ore port inventory, China's nickel ore imports, nickel iron production in Indonesia and China, nickel iron new production capacity, nickel iron开工率, refined nickel imports, China's total refined nickel production, total electrolytic nickel supply, new energy vehicle production and sales in China, ternary precursor production, ternary battery installation, and stainless steel production, export, and import through various charts [18][20][26][37][45]. 3. Inventory and Price Ratio - The report shows the seasonal charts of LME nickel inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory, stainless steel social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan, the profit rate of producing high - grade nickel iron from medium - grade nickel ore, the cost of various technical routes of nickel sulfate, the premium and discount trends of Russian nickel and Jinchuan nickel, and the spot premium and discount of LME nickel [50][53][55][58][60][63].