Toly Bread(603866)2025-04-21 02:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 6.5 yuan [1] Core Views - The company continues to face operational pressure, but adjustments are expected to yield positive effects in the future [7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 14.2% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 27.07% [7] - Despite the challenges, some regions have shown signs of recovery, particularly in Central China, where revenue has increased for two consecutive quarters [7] - The company is actively exploring new channels and adjusting its strategies to adapt to market changes, which is anticipated to stabilize operations in the second half of 2025 [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 6087 million, 6114 million, 6384 million, and 6719 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -9.9%, 0.4%, 4.4%, and 5.3% [2] - Net profit projections for the same years are 522 million, 506 million, 540 million, and 582 million, with year-on-year growth rates of -9.1%, -3.1%, 6.7%, and 7.8% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is 0.32 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 [2][7] - The company's total assets are projected to increase from 7075 million in 2024A to 7896 million in 2027E [14] Market Performance - The company has experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit margins, with a gross margin of 21.97% in Q1 2025, down 1.13 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 7%, reflecting a decrease of 1.23 percentage points compared to the previous year [7] - The company is focusing on cost control, with total expense ratios showing a slight improvement despite the revenue decline [7]