钢铁行业周报（20250414-20250418）：供需改善，钢材价格寻求底部支撑-20250421

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, citing improvements in supply and demand dynamics that provide bottom support for steel prices [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the supply-demand relationship has improved, contributing to a bottom support for steel prices. As of April 18, the prices for five major steel products showed slight declines, with rebar at 3,279 CNY/ton, down 0.59% week-on-week. Total production for these products was 8.7271 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,500 tons [1][2]. - The report notes a significant increase in apparent consumption of major steel products, particularly rebar, which saw a week-on-week increase of 21,140 tons. This is attributed to a rapid decline in inventory levels, with social inventory of rebar decreasing by 30,340 tons [2][9]. - The report emphasizes that while steel prices remain weak, they are at low levels, and the demand from essential purchases is providing some support for price stability. The industry is in a phase of seeking a new equilibrium in supply and demand, with expectations of gradual stabilization in the fundamentals [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of April 18, the five major steel product prices were as follows: rebar at 3,279 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,608 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,262 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,872 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,515 CNY/ton. Weekly changes were -0.59%, -0.48%, -0.88%, -2.14%, and +0.13% respectively [1][14]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The total production of the five major steel products was 8.7271 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 16,500 tons. Daily average pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4012 million tons, a slight decrease of 1,000 tons week-on-week [1][20]. (b) Consumption Volume of Major Steel Products - The total apparent consumption of the five major steel products reached 9.4864 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 481,000 tons. The apparent consumption changes for rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, and medium plate were +21,140 tons, +17,030 tons, +8,830 tons, -1,520 tons, and +2,620 tons respectively [1][39]. (c) Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory decreased to 15.8468 million tons, down 759,300 tons week-on-week. Social inventory fell by 519,000 tons to 11.2483 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 240,300 tons to 4.5985 million tons [1][51]. (d) Profitability Situation - As of April 18, the gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil was +73 CNY/ton, +22 CNY/ton, and +60 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -35 CNY/ton, -45 CNY/ton, and -84 CNY/ton [1][39].