豆粕日评-20250421

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Short - term decline. The impact of Sino - US trade tariff increases is limited, South American soybean production is set, US soybean planting is about to start, domestic soybean stocks are accumulating, and with sufficient rainfall for US soybeans in the next 15 days, there is a lack of fundamental bullish support [1][3]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term decline. Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, new - season rapeseeds will be harvested in May, the substitution of rapeseed meal has decreased, and it is under pressure to fall due to inventory and supply [1][7]. - Palm Oil: Short - term rebound and consolidation. International palm oil supply and demand both increased in April, with marginal supply improvement. Domestic palm oil has low inventory and imports. The short - term rebound is due to good export data from Malaysia, but long - term trends need to consider US biodiesel policies, crude oil prices, and Malaysian palm oil exports [1][9]. - Cotton: Pressured and volatile. US macro data slightly benefits the commodity market, some countries show a tendency to purchase under tariff pressure, domestic cotton inventory is high and being reduced, new cotton is being sown, and the downstream demand is cautious, with the price expected to remain weak after a rebound [1][13]. - Red Dates: Weak operation. The market is in the traditional off - season, fresh fruits are on the market, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand has not improved significantly, with prices expected to fluctuate and consolidate [1][15]. - Live Pigs: Rebound under pressure. The impact of the trade war has faded, the market cost - driven sentiment has slowed, supply is excessive, the consumption end lacks growth momentum, and there is a risk of a callback after the pre - holiday stocking market contracts [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3021 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3396.57 yuan/ton, up 45.71 yuan or 1.36% [2]. - Inventory Data: As of April 11, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 400.82 million tons, up 100.07 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 362.24 million tons, up 71.81 million tons week - on - week, and bean粕 inventory was 29.05 million tons, down 28.86 million tons week - on - week [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2597 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.43% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, up 9.47 yuan or 0.37% [4]. - Inventory Data: As of April 11, coastal area main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 34.8 million tons, up 5.5 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 2.07 million tons, down 1.06 million tons week - on - week [7]. Palm Oil - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8132 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan or 0.88% from the previous day. The national average price was 9080 yuan/ton, down 133 yuan or 1.44% [8]. - Inventory Data: As of a certain period, the weekly commercial inventory was 37.11 million tons, down 0.23 million tons from the previous period [8]. Cotton - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 12885 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day. The domestic spot average price was 14203 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [10]. - Planting and Inventory Data: As of April 13, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 5%. In China, the Xinjiang cotton sowing progress reached 62.3%. The cotton commercial inventory was 420.02 million tons, down 11 million tons from the previous period [11][12]. Red Dates - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9450 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.32% from the previous day. The prices in different regions remained stable [14]. - Inventory Data: The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 10521 tons, down 134 tons from the previous period [14]. Live Pigs - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 14465 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.21% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 14930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.13% [16]. - Inventory and Production Data: The national sample enterprises' monthly live pig inventory was 3689.1 million tons, up 13.17 million tons month - on - month; the monthly live pig出栏量 was 1087.03 million tons, up 156.55 million tons month - on - month [16].