长江期货贵金属周报：降息预期提前，价格延续偏强-20250421

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The market's expectation of a US economic recession is rising, leading to increased market uncertainty. The gold price continues to rise due to factors such as slightly better - than - expected March retail sales data, lower - than - expected March US CPI data, and concerns about the US tariff policy. The market anticipates an increase in the number of interest rate cuts this year. Although the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, the market expects the number of Fed rate cuts to increase from two to four. Central bank gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support precious metal prices. It is expected that the prices will be strong in the near term. The strategy suggests cautious operation and waiting for price pullbacks to build positions. [10] 3. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - The expectation of a US economic recession is rising, the market uncertainty is increasing, and the US dollar index is weakening. The price of US gold and silver continues to rise. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $3341 per ounce, up 2.7% for the week, with an upper resistance at $3390 and a lower support at $3280. US silver closed at $32.86 per ounce, up 2.1% for the week, with a lower support at $31 and an upper resistance at $34. [6][9] 02. Weekly View - The market's recession expectation is rising, and the uncertainty is increasing. The gold price continues to rise. The US tariff policy causes market concerns, and the expectation of an economic hard - landing grows. The market anticipates more interest rate cuts this year. The Fed maintains a hawkish stance, while the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its April meeting. The market expects the Fed to cut rates four times, and central bank gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support precious metal prices. It is expected that the prices will be strong in the near term. The strategy recommends cautious operation and waiting for price pullbacks to build positions. Pay attention to the preliminary value of the US April SPGI manufacturing PMI to be released on Wednesday. [10] - Inventory: Comex gold inventory decreased by 42,494.88 kg to 1,343,973.62 kg, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged at 15,678 kg. Comex silver inventory increased by 50,637.95 kg to 15,523,866.97 kg, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 54,898 kg to 937,219 kg. - Position (April 15): The net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds is 216,400 contracts, an increase of 13,298 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds is 41,064 contracts, a decrease of 954 contracts from last week. - Strategy suggestion: Trade cautiously. Wait for the price to fully pull back and then build positions at low levels. Refer to the operating range of 765 - 803 for the SHFE gold 06 contract and 7800 - 8500 for the SHFE silver 06 contract. [11] 03. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators The report presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, real interest rates, yield spreads, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures price, but no specific data analysis is provided. 04. Important Economic Data of the Week - The US March retail sales month - on - month rate was 1.4%, slightly higher than the expected 1.3% and the previous value of 0.2%. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending April 12 was 215,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and the previous value of 223,000. [25] 05. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points, warning that economic growth will be severely affected by US tariffs. Further rate cuts are likely in June. - US President Trump attacked Fed Chairman Powell, demanding interest rate cuts. Powell said he has no plan to resign before his term ends next May. - US March retail sales increased by 1.4% month - on - month, the largest single - month increase since January 2023, probably due to short - term consumer panic - buying caused by tariffs. [27] 06. Inventory - Comex gold inventory decreased by 42,494.88 kg to 1,343,973.62 kg, and SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 15,678 kg. - Comex silver inventory increased by 50,637.95 kg to 15,523,866.97 kg, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 54,898 kg to 937,219 kg. [12][31] 07. Fund Position As of April 15, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 216,400 contracts, an increase of 13,298 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 41,064 contracts, a decrease of 954 contracts from last week. [12][36] 08. Key Points to Watch This Week - Wednesday (April 23), 21:45: Preliminary value of the US April SPGI manufacturing PMI. - Thursday (April 24), 20:30: Preliminary value of the US March durable goods orders month - on - month rate; number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending April 19. - Friday (April 25), 22:00: Final value of the US April University of Michigan consumer confidence index. [38]