Berun Chemical(SZ:000683) Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-04-21 03:22Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. - The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract in the day session decreased from 1358 yuan/ton to 1324 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.50%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe decreased from 1329 yuan/ton to 1290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.93%. The main basis increased from - 29 yuan/ton to - 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.24% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [13]. Supply in Fundamental Analysis - The production profit of soda ash is at a low level in the same period of history. The profit of the heavy - soda joint - alkali method in East China is 74.10 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy - soda ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 140.75 yuan/ton [16]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 89.50%, and the operating rate has stabilized and rebounded. The weekly output of soda ash is 75.56 tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash is 41.65 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [19][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been large - scale new production capacities in the soda ash industry. The new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 60 tons [22]. Demand in Fundamental Analysis - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 97.58% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.85 tons, and the operating rate of 75.66% continues to decline, with weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the output has stabilized [28][31]. Inventory in Fundamental Analysis - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 171.13 tons, of which the inventory of heavy soda ash is 86.44 tons, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period of history [34]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Fundamental Analysis - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows that the effective capacity, production, apparent supply, and total demand of soda ash have all changed to varying degrees. In 2024E, the effective capacity is 3930 tons, the production is 3650 tons, the apparent supply is 3536 tons, and the total demand is 3379 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 157 tons [35]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The cold - repair of float glass in the heavy - soda downstream is at a high level, with a continuous decrease in daily melting volume and weak demand for soda ash. The full - scale escalation of Sino - US tariff conflicts may drag down the market due to macro - pessimistic sentiment [4].