CMS·2025-04-21 03:35Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Recommended" based on the positive outlook for the industry fundamentals [2]. Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of the US-China tariff dispute on feed raw material prices, particularly focusing on soybean imports and their pricing dynamics [9][18]. - It is estimated that China's soybean import demand can be largely met by South American suppliers, with a projected domestic soybean supply gap of approximately 85 to 92 million tons [19][32]. - The report indicates that the price of South American soybeans is unlikely to see significant increases due to improved production costs and favorable climatic conditions [40][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Impact of US-China Tariff Dispute on Feed Raw Material Prices - The report highlights that the tariff increases on US agricultural products have significantly affected the competitiveness of US soybeans in the Chinese market [9]. - The current tariff rates have widened the price gap between US and South American soybeans, diminishing the former's market viability [9][10]. 2. Can Overseas Soybeans Effectively Meet China's Import Demand? - China's soybean consumption has been steadily increasing, with a notable reliance on imports, primarily from Brazil and Argentina [19][20]. - The report estimates that the domestic soybean supply gap could be between 85 to 92 million tons, but this can be effectively covered by imports from South America [19][32]. 3. Will South American Soybean Prices Remain Stable? - The report suggests that production costs for soybeans in Brazil are decreasing, which will limit upward pressure on prices [41]. - The anticipated neutral La Niña conditions for 2025 are expected to have minimal impact on soybean yields, supporting a stable price outlook [47][50]. 4. Elasticity Testing: Impact of Raw Material Price Fluctuations on Pig Feed Costs - The analysis indicates that fluctuations in corn and soybean meal prices will have a limited impact on pig feed costs, estimated to increase by 0.3 to 0.5 yuan per kilogram [53][54]. - The report provides detailed scenarios showing how changes in corn and soybean meal prices affect overall feed costs, with significant price increases being unlikely [54][59].