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研究所晨会观点精萃-20250421
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-04-21 03:33

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The uncertainty of the US economy has increased, and the US dollar has continued to decline. The global risk appetite has generally increased, while the Chinese economy has shown signs of accelerated recovery, and policy support expectations have strengthened, providing strong support for the short - term risk appetite of the domestic market [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to have a short - term volatile rebound; bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term; commodities show different trends in different sectors, with black metals being weakly volatile, non - ferrous metals having a volatile rebound, energy and chemicals having a volatile rebound, and precious metals rising [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US President's threat to dismiss the Fed Chairman has increased the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy. Due to tariff issues, the economic uncertainty has increased, and the US dollar index has continued to decline [2]. - Domestic: China's GDP in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The State Council's executive meeting indicated an increase in counter - cyclical adjustment to support employment and foreign trade, strengthening policy support expectations [2]. Stock Index - Affected by the hotel, tourism, food processing, and agricultural sectors, the domestic stock market declined slightly. However, strong economic data, policy support, and the US President's softened attitude towards tariffs provided support for the domestic market, suggesting short - term cautious long positions [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs. The US government's credit damage, geopolitical risks, and the Fed Chairman's hawkish stance have supported the strong performance of gold. Silver may follow gold in high - level oscillations but faces greater downward pressure [3][4]. Black Metals - Steel: The steel futures and spot markets continued to decline slightly, with low trading volumes. Policy expectations have increased. Demand has improved, but the "buy - on - rising" mentality and the seasonal transition have led to differentiated trading. Supply is at a high level, and short - term steel markets are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices declined slightly. Iron - water production remained high, and supply is expected to increase further. Short - term policy expectations support prices, but a long - term bearish view is held if steel demand remains weak [5]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: Prices were flat. Demand was fair, and supply showed different trends. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5][6]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Oil prices have rebounded in the short term but are expected to be bearish in the long term due to the expected increase in OPEC supply [8]. - Asphalt: It has stabilized slightly following oil prices. The market shows regional differences, and its fundamentals mainly follow oil price fluctuations [8]. - PX: It has rebounded with oil prices but remains in a weak oscillation pattern due to weak supply and demand [8]. - PTA: It maintains a weak oscillation pattern due to limited improvement in terminal orders and increased downstream inventory pressure [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak supply - demand conditions [10][11]. - Short - fiber: It remains in a low - level oscillation, with limited export volume and weak domestic demand [11]. - Methanol: The 05 contract oscillates, while the 09 contract may present short - selling opportunities after a rebound [11]. - PP: It is expected to have an oscillatory recovery due to reduced supply pressure [11]. - LLDPE: The near - month contract is supported by low inventory, while the 09 contract faces medium - to - long - term pressure [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Supported by strong demand and policy expectations, copper prices are expected to continue their oscillatory rebound [12]. - Aluminum: The domestic fundamentals are good, with significant inventory reduction. It has short - term rebound potential but is bearish in the medium term [12][13]. - Tin: Supply is gradually recovering but remains at a low level, and demand is differentiated. Tin prices are expected to rebound in the short term [13]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: Low domestic inventory and potential planting delays support the price. The market's concern about the export supply chain has decreased [14]. - Soybean Meal: The recovery of domestic oil - mill operations is slow. The futures are supported, and the monthly spread is expected to be repaired [14]. - Rapeseed Meal: It is in the peak demand season, but the supply risk premium has decreased. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [14]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: The inventory of soybean oil is decreasing, while rapeseed oil faces high - inventory pressure and is at risk of a price decline [15]. - Palm Oil: Domestic inventory is low, and the price is affected by cost and international market conditions [16].