CATL(300750) 野村·2025-04-21 03:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) and raises the target price to CNY 331, implying an upside of approximately 48% from the closing price of CNY 224 on April 14, 2025 [6][26]. Core Insights - CATL reported a revenue growth of 6% year-on-year to CNY 84.7 billion in 1Q25, despite an 18% quarter-on-quarter decline, attributed to lower product ASPs and a longer revenue recognition cycle in the ESS segment [1][2]. - The company's gross profit margin improved by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to 24.4%, driven by lower material costs and effective cost control measures [1]. - Earnings grew by 33% year-on-year to CNY 14 billion, with a net margin expansion of 3.3 percentage points to 16.5%, primarily due to an improved margin profile and higher investment income [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1Q25, CATL achieved a gross profit of CNY 20.7 billion, reflecting an 11% increase year-on-year, while operating income adjusted was CNY 11.8 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year [16]. - The company expects revenue for FY25 to reach CNY 423.6 billion, with a normalized net profit forecasted at CNY 64.5 billion, representing a 27.2% growth [5][17]. Market Position - CATL holds a 38% global market share in EV battery usage, with a 43% share in the European market, and anticipates further market share expansion in Europe due to product competitiveness and localized manufacturing [2]. - The German plant of CATL turned profitable in 1Q25, indicating successful operational strategies in the European market [2]. Future Outlook - The report projects a slight increase in FY25-27 earnings by 4.8-5.3%, reflecting a better margin profile and higher investment gains [4]. - The target price of CNY 331 is based on a 19x FY26F EPS of CNY 17.42, which is 1x standard deviation below the historical average forward P/E [4][18].