需求改善不及预期，锂价震荡延续

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In terms of fundamentals, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in early April fell short of expectations, with a significant decline in year-on-year growth rate. The sales-to-production ratio of new energy vehicles remained low from January to March, and automakers still faced inventory pressure. Although downstream buyers were more active when lithium prices were low, the terminal consumption increment was limited, and the consumption transmission path was blocked, so the downstream buying enthusiasm lacked strong resilience [4]. - In terms of cost, the prices of spodumene and lepidolite remained stable during the reporting period [4]. - Regarding the later outlook, the demand increment was lower than expected, and the fundamentals lacked support. Although there was a possibility of a rebound from a technical perspective, high inventory still exerted pressure, and lithium prices would continue to fluctuate. Fundamentally, although there was an obvious contraction expectation on the supply side in April, the spot inventory continued to accumulate, the high-frequency consumption growth rate announced by the Passenger Car Association declined, and the sales-to-production ratio under the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' statistics remained low, so the demand increment was lower than expected, and the fundamentals lacked support. Technically, the trading volume increased significantly when lithium prices hit the bottom, indicating strong willingness of bulls to buy at the bottom. After lithium prices entered a shrinking and volatile phase, the 5-day moving average was about to cross above the 10-day moving average to form a golden cross, suggesting a possible rebound. Overall, the cost support logic remained, there was a rebound expectation from a technical perspective, but the bearish fundamental pattern continued, which might suppress the rebound, and lithium prices would generally remain volatile [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Data - The prices of imported lithium ore (1.3%-2.2%) and imported lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%) remained unchanged, while the price of domestic lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%) decreased by 0.55%. The spot prices of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, as well as the price of the lithium carbonate main contract, all increased slightly. The prices of battery-grade coarse-grained lithium hydroxide increased by 1.46%, while the price of fine-grained lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.13%. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.62%. The prices of lithium iron phosphate and cobalt acid lithium decreased by 3.21% and 0.94% respectively, while the prices of ternary materials (811 and 622) remained unchanged [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulatory and Delivery: As of April 18, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 29,562 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 72,280 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2507 was 153,000 lots [8]. - Supply Side: As of April 18, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 16,305 tons, a decrease of 190 tons from the previous period. Domestic lithium salt supply had shrunk significantly after the Spring Festival, and lithium salt plants were less willing to increase production at low prices. After the supply structure changed, high-cost salt plants might leave the market temporarily, and domestic supply was unlikely to recover significantly in the short term [8]. - Imports: In February, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 12,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 38.7% and a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. Among them, 7,572 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for about 61%, a month-on-month decrease of 15.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 40%. 4,388 tons were imported from Argentina, a month-on-month decrease of 34.5% and a year-on-year increase of 77.3%. In March, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was about 23,000 tons, a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 8% and 37% respectively. Among them, 16,600 tons were exported to China, a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 3% and 38% respectively. Although Chile's shipping volume increased significantly in March, the low level in February would still drag down China's import volume in April. The supply side was still in a contraction phase and might improve in May driven by increased imports [8]. - Lithium Ore Imports: In February, about 567,100 tons of lithium ore were imported, a month-on-month decrease of 3.9%. Among them, 232,100 tons were imported from Australia, a month-on-month decrease of 32.0% and a year-on-year increase of 77.1%; 149,500 tons were imported from South Africa, a month-on-month decrease of 48.1%; 97,200 tons were imported from Zimbabwe, a month-on-month increase of 81.1%; and 46,600 tons were imported from Nigeria, a month-on-month increase of 18.5%. From the high-frequency shipping data, Australia's lithium ore shipping volume increased significantly in March, and about 90,000 tons of lithium ore were shipped to China in the second half of the month. As of April 3, the domestic lithium ore inventory was about 63,000 tons, at an absolute high level [9][10]. - Demand Side - Positive Electrode Materials: As of April 18, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 65,846 tons, with an operating rate of 60.98%, an increase of 0.78 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 38,318 tons, an increase of 166 tons. The total production of ternary materials was about 14,850 tons, with an operating rate of 45.79%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,755 tons, a decrease of 50 tons. During the reporting period, the prices of positive electrode materials were weak. Although the prices of iron phosphate and lithium were relatively stable and the nickel price increased significantly due to the expected policy disturbance in Indonesia, the prices of ternary positive electrodes still decreased slightly, indicating that the weak demand side dragged down the prices [11]. - New Energy Vehicles: From April 1 to 13, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 275,000, a year-on-year increase of 15% compared with the same period in April last year and a month-on-month decrease of 17%. The new energy retail penetration rate was 53.3%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 2.695 million, a year-on-year increase of 34%. According to the high-frequency data of the Passenger Car Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was weak in early April, and the year-on-year growth rate declined significantly, dragging down the increase in the cumulative annual sales volume. Under the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales-to-production ratio of new energy vehicles from January to March improved slightly, but the improvement in terminal demand was limited, and automakers still faced inventory pressure. The demand transmission path was still relatively blocked. Multiple auto shows across the country will be held in late April, and attention should be paid to the stimulation of potential consumption by new technologies and new models [12]. - Inventory: As of April 18, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 96,705 tons, a decrease of about 608 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 29,700 tons, an increase of 230 tons from the previous period, and the market inventory was 67,005 tons, a decrease of 838 tons from the previous period. Overall, the operating rate of downstream material plants increased slightly, the total lithium salt inventory remained low and the margin further narrowed, and the marginal improvement in fundamentals drove the spot inventory to decline. However, it should be noted that the terminal consumption intensity was limited, and the resilience of lithium salt inventory destocking needed to be considered [13]. - This Week's Outlook: The demand improvement was lower than expected, and lithium prices would continue to fluctuate. Although there was an obvious contraction expectation on the supply side in April, the spot inventory continued to accumulate, the high-frequency consumption growth rate declined, and the demand increment was lower than expected, so the fundamentals lacked support. Technically, there was a possibility of a rebound, but the high inventory would still suppress it. Overall, lithium prices would generally remain volatile [14]. Industry News - Zhefu Holdings' nickel sulfate production line has been put into operation, and the nickel equivalent production in 2024 is about 6,400 tons. The refined cobalt sulfate and lithium carbonate projects have basically completed construction and are ready for production [15]. - The fourth-generation lithium iron phosphate project of Bangpu with a total investment of 5.6 billion yuan has started construction. After full production, it can achieve an annual output value of 14.5 billion yuan [15]. - Guocheng Mining's Jinxin Mining has a mining license for 1 million tons/year and is promoting the application for a 5 million tons/year mining license [15]. - Tibet Mining's production targets for 2025 are 100,000 tons of chromite, 5,000 tons of lithium concentrate, 7,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and 93,000 tons of potassium chloride [15]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the prices, production, supply structure, imports, and other data of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related products [17][19][21]