铝周报：关税政策博弈，铝价震荡-20250421

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided text 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff policy is fluctuating, and the Fed's stance is hawkish. The macro - environment remains cautious. Given the current rapid inventory reduction, low absolute inventory, and rigid supply, there is strong support for the aluminum price at the lower end, and the aluminum price will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. As it enters the off - season, the pressure at the 20,000 - yuan mark will gradually increase, and the center of the aluminum price may shift downward in the second half of the second quarter [2][8] 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From April 11th to April 18th, 2025, the price of LME aluminum for 3 months decreased from 2397 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton; SHFE aluminum continuous three decreased from 19595 dollars/ton to 19590 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased by 0.1. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 12175 tons to 434150 tons, and SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12769 tons to 92475 tons. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased by 87.6 yuan/ton to 16382.04 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit increased by 57.1 yuan/ton to 3345.46 yuan/ton [3] Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot was 19728 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.5 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average price of Southern Storage spot was 19736 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton from the previous week [4] - The US tariff policy has new developments, such as the exemption of "reciprocal tariffs" for some electronic products. Trump said he expected to reach a trade agreement with the EU. The Fed Chairman warned about the inflation effect of Trump's tariff policy. Economic data in the US, Eurozone, and China were released, with China's Q1 GDP growing by 5.4% year - on - year [5][6] - On the consumer side, the operating rates of domestic downstream aluminum processing industries are differentiated. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased significantly in the past two weeks. As of April 17th, aluminum ingot social inventory was 68.8 million tons, a decrease of 5.5 million tons from the previous Thursday, and aluminum rods were 22.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.59 million tons [7] Market Outlook - The US reciprocal tariff has eased slightly, but it may still fluctuate. China's Q1 economic data is better than expected, and there is a high expectation of incremental policy implementation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum maintains high - start capacity, and the consumption is strong during the peak season. In summary, the aluminum price will oscillate in the short term and may decline in the second half of the second quarter [8] Industry News - The US has imposed high tariffs on China, and China has responded. In March 2025, China's aluminum product output was 598.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [9][10] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, and inventory seasonal changes [12][16][19]