关税博弈阶段，锌价低位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures rebounded but was blocked. The US is in trade negotiations with other countries, and the Fed's hawkish remarks have weakened expectations of a bailout, leading to low market risk appetite. China's Q1 export and economic indicators exceeded expectations due to pre - tariff exports and policy support. The large - scale delivery of LME zinc inventory has raised concerns about overseas consumption, pressuring zinc prices at home and abroad. Domestic downstream buyers purchased at low prices, reducing social inventory to 100,000 tons, which provides support. The supply pressure is expected to increase as smelters have a mix of production cuts and restarts. Zinc ingot imports opened and then closed, with limited inflow of imported goods, resulting in a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The galvanizing industry's operating rate increased slightly due to strong tower orders and some companies' pre - tariff exports, while the operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide industries declined. Overall, as the US enters the tariff negotiation stage and China is expected to introduce policies to hedge against overseas risks, market sentiment is expected to improve but may be volatile. Fundamentals are weak, but strong downstream purchases and inventory reduction provide support. In the short term, there is no clear single - sided driver, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely at a low level [3][10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | April 11 | April 18 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22,660 | 22,050 | - 610 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2,661 | 2,595 | - 66 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.52 | 8.50 | - 0.02 | | | SHFE Inventory | 63,857 | 58,585 | - 5,272 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 119,350 | 195,350 | 76,000 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 102,100 | 100,000 | - 2,100 | Tons | | Spot Premium | 120 | 160 | 40 | Yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2506, rebounded but then fell back. With tariffs in the negotiation stage and macro - trading being volatile, along with a large - scale delivery of LME inventory, zinc prices closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.58%. On Friday night, the oscillation center moved slightly higher. LME zinc oscillated downward, closing at 2,595 US dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 2.48% due to inventory increases and concerns about demand prospects [5] - In the spot market, as of April 18, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was 22,410 - 22,510 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers' inventory from previous purchases had not decreased, so their inquiry enthusiasm weakened, and traders lowered their quotes, causing the spot premium to continue to decline [6] - In terms of inventory, as of April 17, LME zinc inventory increased by 76,000 tons to 195,350 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 5,272 tons to 58,585 tons, and social inventory decreased to 100,000 tons. Due to lower zinc prices during the week, downstream buyers purchased more at low prices, with significant inventory reductions in Shanghai and Tianjin, while inventory in Guangdong changed little [7] - In the macro - aspect, Fed Chairman Powell warned about the inflationary effects of Trump's trade policies. Trump criticized Powell for being slow to act and said that a US - Ukraine mineral agreement would be signed on the 24th. The US government initiated a 232 national security investigation on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports. Trump mentioned measures to help automakers adjust their supply chains. He was confident about reaching a trade agreement with the EU but was not in a hurry. The EU might impose export restrictions on the US if negotiations broke down. Trump said that US - Japan negotiations had made significant progress but no substantial documents had been signed. The European Central Bank cut interest rates. Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized early and rapid policy implementation [7][8] - China's March export in US dollars increased by 12.4% year - on - year, with a trade surplus of 102.64 billion US dollars, a 75.2% year - on - year increase. Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year and 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. March industrial added value increased by 7.7% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 5.9% year - on - year [9] 3.3 Industry News - As of the week ending April 18, the average weekly domestic TC of SMM Zn50 was flat at 3,450 yuan/metal ton, and the average weekly imported TC was flat at 35 US dollars/dry ton [13] - An East China smelter plans to conduct maintenance on its zinc production line from May 5 to May 31, affecting about 4,000 tons of zinc ingot output. A Southwest smelter postponed its April maintenance to May. New maintenance was added in East and Central China, but with new capacity release and restart after maintenance, supply pressure is expected to increase. Some smelters plan to increase production, while others postpone maintenance due to high sulfuric acid prices [13][14] - A large die - casting zinc alloy factory in East China has suspended raw material procurement due to high inventory and plans to stop production for inventory consumption. If inventory consumption is not good, it may extend the holiday or resume production after the May Day holiday [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, the ratio between domestic and foreign markets, spot premiums, LME premiums, inventory levels of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and the operating rates of downstream primary enterprises [16][21]